NBA
Houston enters with a 6-4 over record and an 8-3 ATS mark, backed by 116.0 points per game, 47.9% shooting, and only 107.0 points allowed per game. Golden State has also started well against the number at 8-3 ATS, but its defensive profile is weaker at 113.6 points allowed per game, and its away defensive efficiency is worse than its home split. Offensively, the Warriors are dangerous with 118.6 points per game and 39.5% from three, yet Houston’s own attack has been efficient enough at 46.9% from the field and 82.0% at the line to keep pace while leaning on defense and rebounding.
Houston is projected to win at home, with a final score of 116-109. The Rockets have the better defensive numbers, a slight edge in overall shooting efficiency, and a strong home profile that makes the spread the cleaner side. Golden State can keep this competitive with its offense, but Houston’s ability to control the glass and limit efficient looks should be enough to separate late and cover.
