Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans Prediction - November 14, 2026

Prediction

• ●Recommended Position: Under 233.5
• ●Model Win Probability: 56.0%
• ●Market Implied Probability: 52.38%
• ●Model Edge: 3.62%
• ●Entry Threshold: -128
• ●Model Confidence: 66/100

Model Projection

• ●Projected Score: Denver Nuggets 118, New Orleans Pelicans 109
• ●Projected Total: 227.0

Why This Position Stands Out

The under stands out because the current market price is still attached to a game environment that may be a bit too optimistic about scoring volume. Denver has the stronger overall profile, but its away offensive efficiency is lower than its season mark, and New Orleans has been especially inefficient recently on defense, which can often push game scripts toward slower half-court possessions after the first few scoring runs. Denver’s defense is the more dependable unit in this matchup, and its away defensive efficiency is far better than New Orleans’ recent defensive form, which points to the Nuggets controlling pace and limiting easy transition chances. The gap between the teams is also larger on the defensive side than the offensive side. New Orleans is scoring at a decent rate, but its points allowed per game remains very high, while Denver’s points allowed figure is materially better. That combination can still produce a Denver win without requiring a shootout. With the market price near a neutral scoring expectation, the model sees enough cushion for the under to qualify as the clearest value position.