COLLEGE FOOTBALL
South Dakota State has the kind of ground game that can limit possessions and keep an underdog cover alive, and its 2025 numbers back that up. The Jackrabbits averaged 154.3 rushing yards per game and 5.4 yards per play on offense while also allowing just 21.93 points per game and 319.4 total yards per game. That blend usually travels well, especially in a first-game setting where timing and rhythm can lag for the favorite. Northwestern is the better roster and should win, but the spread appears a touch aggressive relative to the gap between these profiles. Northwestern averaged 23.38 points per game, 346.1 yards per game, and 5.4 yards per play in 2025, numbers that support a win without automatically supporting a blowout. If the Wildcats lean on defense and field position, the game can land in a range where the dog stays inside the number even if Northwestern controls the result.
Northwestern finished 2025 at 7-6 and showed a balanced but unspectacular offensive profile. The Wildcats produced 23.38 points per game, 346.1 yards per game, 185.9 passing yards per game, and 160.2 rushing yards per game, while allowing 19.85 points per game and 329.8 yards per game. That defense gives them a path to a clean win, but the offense did not consistently separate from peers. South Dakota State closed 2025 at 9-5 with a much more run-heavy identity. The Jackrabbits averaged 28.57 points per game, 379.7 yards per game, 225.4 passing yards per game, and 154.3 rushing yards per game. Chase Mason and Julius Loughridge give them production on both sides of the run-pass balance, and the defense allowed 21.93 points per game with 5.2 yards per play allowed. That combination suggests a team capable of hanging around if it avoids turnovers and keeps the game on schedule.
Northwestern should open with a win, but South Dakota State has the profile to make this a tougher night than the market implies. The Jackrabbits’ run game and efficient defense point to a competitive game script, and Northwestern’s 2025 numbers do not suggest a team built to consistently separate by a wide margin. Final score projection: Northwestern Wildcats 27, South Dakota State Jackrabbits 20.
