COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Troy enters this game with the cleaner recent statistical profile. In 2025, the Trojans went 8-6 overall, scored 23.50 points per game, and produced 307.2 total yards per game. Their defense held opponents to 23.93 points per game, 372.6 total yards per game, and 4.6 yards per play. That is not elite on offense, but it is balanced enough to keep a clear talent gap from turning into a track meet. Sam Houston’s 2025 numbers show a team that had trouble on both sides of the ball. The Bearkats scored 17.75 points per game and averaged 316.1 total yards per game, while allowing 37.83 points per game and 483.6 yards per game. Their offense averaged 5.0 yards per play, but their defense allowed 7.0 yards per play, which is a bad combination against a home favorite with a more disciplined baseline. That gap makes Troy the more likely winner, but the best betting angle is still the under because Sam Houston’s scoring ceiling looks limited unless turnovers create short fields.
Troy should win at home, and the cleaner betting angle is the under rather than laying a big number or chasing a moneyline price. The Trojans’ offense is good enough to build a lead, and their defense should keep Sam Houston from stringing together enough efficient possessions to push this game into a shootout. My projection is Troy 31, Sam Houston State 20, for a total of 51, which supports the under as the best value on the board.
