COLLEGE FOOTBALL
The strongest angle in this matchup is Norfolk State’s scoring ceiling, not the full-game side. Old Dominion finished 2025 with 31.5 points per game, 454.7 total yards per game, 216.4 rushing yards per game, and 238.3 passing yards per game, which is the profile of an offense that can control tempo and create repeated scoring chances. On defense, the Monarchs held opponents to 18.5 points per game, 331.5 yards per game, and 4.8 yards per play, a strong combination against an opponent stepping up a level in class. Norfolk State’s 2025 numbers point in the other direction. The Spartans averaged 20.8 points per game and 422.0 total yards per game, but they also allowed 35.8 points per game and 424.7 yards per game. That kind of defensive leakage matters against a team that can sustain drives and finish possessions. Even if Old Dominion does not chase style points, the setup still favors Norfolk State being held below its normal scoring range because the Spartans may spend long stretches without favorable field position or extended possession time.
Old Dominion’s 2025 season showed a balanced and productive offense, with 216.4 passing yards per game, 238.3 rushing yards per game, and 5.6 yards per play. The Monarchs were also efficient in finishing drives, and that matters in a game like this because the mismatch is more about sustained pressure than one isolated explosive play. Defensively, Old Dominion was sturdy enough to keep lesser offenses from finding rhythm, which should help it control the pace at home. Norfolk State’s recent form was much shakier. The Spartans scored enough to stay competitive in stretches, but the defense gave up too much yardage and too many points for that to translate into consistent results. Their 2025 defense allowed 35.8 points per game and 424.7 yards per game, including 227.2 passing yards and 157.6 rushing yards per game allowed in conference play. Against Old Dominion, that kind of profile creates a real risk of long scoring droughts if the offense has to play from behind and face a more physical front for four quarters.
Old Dominion should control this game from start to finish behind the more complete roster, the better front seven, and a much stronger 2025 statistical profile on both offense and defense. Norfolk State can create some early possessions, but the Spartans’ scoring outlook is limited by Old Dominion’s ability to limit yards and finish drives. The projected final score is Old Dominion Monarchs 42, Norfolk State Spartans 10, which supports a Norfolk State team total under and a game script that favors the home side throughout.
