COLLEGE FOOTBALL
The best value on the board is the under because the total is being set off a market expectation of a comfortable New Mexico State win with enough offense to push the game beyond 51 points. The current stats do not fully support that level of scoring. Mercyhurst’s opener showed a team that was overwhelmed physically, but also one that did not generate enough offense to help the game get to a true track meet. New Mexico State’s own numbers are modest on offense at 17.0 points and 319.0 yards per game, with 272.0 passing yards and only 47.0 rushing yards per game, which suggests an attack that can move the ball without necessarily turning every possession into points.
Mercyhurst’s early 2026 production has been rough. The Lakers scored 10.0 points per game, averaged 241.0 yards per game, and gave up 43.0 points and 484.0 yards per game in their first outing. Their offense averaged only 4.7 yards per play, while the defense allowed 7.3 yards per play. That is a difficult formula against an FBS opponent on the road. New Mexico State has also shown enough flaws to keep the margin from feeling completely out of reach, but its offense has been more functional than flashy at 17.0 points, 319.0 yards, and 4.6 yards per play. The Aggies’ defense has allowed 34.0 points, 419.0 yards, and 6.3 yards per play, so they are not operating like a shutdown unit. Still, the combined profile points to New Mexico State controlling field position and game flow rather than creating a back-and-forth scoring race.
New Mexico State should win at home, but the stronger betting angle is the under on a number sitting a little too high for these offensive profiles. Mercyhurst’s offense has been too limited, and New Mexico State’s attack has not been efficient enough to justify a full game in the low 50s. A projected final score of New Mexico State 34, Mercyhurst 10 gives the Aggies the win while landing comfortably below the posted total.
