Texas vs Florida Pick & Prediction - 10/4/2025
Updated September 28, 2025
Updated September 28, 2025
The Texas Longhorns and the Florida Gators will face off on Saturday in an intriguing matchup in the SEC. This game brings together two storied programs that have had very different starts to their 2025 campaigns. Here, I break down this matchup in Week 6 of the college football season and make my Texas vs Florida prediction for Saturday afternoon.
Betting Market | Odds |
|---|---|
Spread | Texas -7.5 |
Moneyline | Texas -280 / Florida +225 |
Total | Over/Under 45.5 |
Texas: Arch Manning has had an up-and-down start to the 2025 season. He has 888 passing yards, nine touchdowns, and three interceptions for the year. His dual-threat capabilities make him a constant threat to opposing defenses with both his arm and his legs. But his passing efficiency has to improve for Texas to be a playoff team later in the year.
Florida: Sophomore quarterback DJ Lagway has shown flashes of potential but has struggled for the most part. He is averaging under 200 passing yards per game with five touchdowns and six interceptions. He is clearly the second-best quarterback in this game despite Manning's early struggles.
Score Projection: Texas 27 – Florida 20
Win Probability: Texas 65%, Florida 35%
This is going to be a very interesting game on both sides, as both teams need to prove themselves amid questions surrounding their offenses. Texas should ultimately come away with the win, but I don't like the idea of laying over a touchdown with this Longhorns offense on the road. I'll take the 7.5 points with Florida with the expectation that this game is settled by around a touchdown.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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