One of the biggest matchups in college football this week will unfold between the Tennessee Volunteers and Alabama Crimson Tide on Saturday night. Both of these teams are 5-1 for the season and a win would be huge for the conference title hopes of whoever can get it. Before kickoff from Tuscaloosa, continue reading for my Tennessee vs Alabama prediction.
Our Tennessee vs Alabama Pick
- Pick: Over 59.5
- Confidence: 4/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Tennessee Volunteers vs Alabama Crimson Tide
- Date & Time: Saturday, October 18, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL
- Broadcast: ABC
Key Storylines
- Quarterback Play: Alabama's Ty Simpson has been exceptional. He has completed 76% of his passes and has lead the team to five consecutive wins. Simpson has 16 touchdowns to just one interception and he will try to continue his stellar campaign here. Tennessee's Joey Aguilar is leading the nation's top-scoring offense. He has thrown for 1,680 yards, 14 touchdowns, and five picks.
- Defensive Struggles: Tennessee's defense ranks 100th nationally in total defense and faces significant challenges in the secondary with key injuries. Alabama's defense, while improved, will need to figure out a way to get stops against Tennessee's high-powered offense.
- SEC Implications: Alabama enters this game at 3-0 in the SEC and Tennessee is right behind them at 2-1. The winner of this game will clear a huge hurdle in the race to get to the SEC Championship Game, especially if Alabama is that team and they get to 4-0 in conference play with wins over Georgia and Tennessee.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Alabama is 4-1-1 against the spread this season. The only time they failed to cover the spread was their season opener, when they lost to Florida State.
- Tennessee is 3-3 against the spread going into this weekend's game.
- Alabama is 4-2 to the over through six games.
- Tennessee is 5-1 to the over on the year. Only Air Force has gone over the total more often than the Vols.
- Alabama leads the all-time series 60–40–7 over the Volunteers. Tennessee's last win in Tuscaloosa occurred in 2003.
Tennessee vs Alabama Model Projection
- Score Projection: Alabama 34 – Tennessee 31
- Win Probability: Alabama 65%, Tennessee 35%
Final Thoughts
If you like high-scoring college football, this is going to be the game for you. Both of these teams have high-octane passing attacks that should cause problems for the defense on the opposite side. I think we will see both teams score in bunches in this game and that it will come down to the wire. Instead of taking a side against the spread, I'll take the over and hope that both of these passing attacks can live up to the high expectations they have set for themselves this season.
Jay Sanin
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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