The South Alabama Jaguars (1–3) will face the North Texas Mean Green (4–0) on Saturday afternoon at DATCU Stadium in Denton. North Texas enters the game as a heavy favorite as they look to stay undefeated on the 2025 season. Who will win this non-conference matchup? Continue reading to get my South Alabama vs North Texas prediction.
Our South Alabama vs North Texas Pick
- Pick: North Texas -12.5
- Confidence: 4/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: South Alabama Jaguars vs North Texas Mean Green
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 27, 2025, 12:00 PM EDT
- Venue: DATCU Stadium, Denton, TX
- Broadcast: ESPNU
South Alabama vs North Texas Odds
Betting Market | Odds |
|---|
Spread | North Texas -12.5 |
Moneyline | North Texas -500, South Alabama +360 |
Total | 62.5 |
Key Storylines
- North Texas' Strong Start: The Mean Green are off to a 4–0 start, including a thrilling 45–38 overtime victory over Army last time out. The Mean Green have scored 45 or more points in three of their first four games this season and will try to light up the scoreboard again here.
- South Alabama's Offensive Firepower: Despite a 1–3 record, the Jaguars have been decent offensively at times. They scored into the 30s in a loss to Tulane and the Jaguars could stay competitive here if they avoid mistakes on that side of the ball.
- Defensive Considerations: North Texas boasts a strong defense, allowing only 19.5 points per game, while South Alabama has conceded 30.75 points per game. That could cause problems for the Jaguars given the caliber of offense they are playing here.
Quarterback Play
- Drew Mestemaker (North Texas): Mestemaker has been efficient, throwing 10 touchdowns without any interceptions. North Texas loves airing it out offensively and it's not hard to see why when you watch Mestemaker play.
- Bishop Davenport (South Alabama): Davenport has had a nice season, completing 69% of his passes this year. He has six touchdown passes and three interceptions. He has been good through four games, but good might not be good enough against the Mean Green.
Betting Trends & H2H
- North Texas is 3-1 against the spread during their 4-0 start to the season.
- South Alabama is 1-3 straight up and 2-2 against the spread for the season.
- Both teams have had three of their first four games go over their totals.
- North Texas is 2-0 all-time against South Alabama. The Mean Green beat the Jaguars 52-38 in Mobile last season.
South Alabama vs North Texas Model Projection
- Score Projection: North Texas 38 – South Alabama 24
- Win Probability: North Texas 75%, South Alabama 25%
Final Thoughts
North Texas enters this game as the stronger team, with an undefeated record, home-field advantage, and a more potent offense. We should see the Mean Green move to 5-0 on the season with a win here. I recommend laying the points with North Texas, and I'd like to introduce the idea of putting the Mean Green in the top 25 if they keep winning by big margins.
Jay Sanin
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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