Memphis Tigers vs NC State Wolfpack Gasparilla Bowl Prediction – 12/19/2025

As college football bowl season rolls on, the Mem­phis Tigers and NC State Wolfpack will play in the Gasparilla Bowl in Tampa on Friday afternoon. These teams went in opposite directions late in the regular season, but both will try to end their season with a win here. Before kickoff from Raymond James Stadium, continue reading to get my analysis for this game, including my Memphis vs NC State prediction.

Our Memphis vs NC State Pick

Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Memphis Tigers vs NC State Wolfpack
• Date & Time: Friday, December 19, 2025, 2:30 PM
• Venue: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
• Broadcast: ESPN

Key Storylines

This Gasparilla Bowl pits two teams against each other that had very different ends to their regular seasons. Memphis enters with an 8-4 record and boasts one of the more explosive offenses in the FBS, ranking 34th in total offense and averaging over 34 points per game. But they closed out their regular season with three straight losses to Tulane, East Carolina, and Navy. The Tigers are now navigating a coaching transition after the departure of their head coach to Arkansas, which could impact their preparation and in-game adjustments.

NC State is 7-5 and enters off two straight wins to end their regular season. Their offense is led by quarterback CJ Bailey, who has thrown for nearly 2,900 yards and over 23 touchdowns. The Wolfpack’s red-zone efficiency is among the best in the nation, contributing to their ability to light up the scoreboard. They will need to score in bunches to keep up with the explosive offense of Memphis.

Quarterback Play

Quarterback play could be decisive in Tampa. For Memphis, Brendon Lewis is capable both as a rusher and a passer. Lewis has been key to the Tigers’ explosive style of play and red-zone scoring, though his health hasn’t been a given late in the season.

CJ Bailey’s production has been central to the Wolfpack’s offensive identity. His ability to distribute the ball to a deep receiver group and rely on a solid running game keeps defenses honest. Smothers is in the transfer portal, which could impact the rushing output of the Wolfpack, putting the spotlight more on Bailey to perform.

Betting Trends & H2H

• Memphis is 8-4 against the spread this season.
• NC State went 6-6 against the spread this year.
• The over is 7-5 in games featuring both of these teams going into bowl season.
• This is the first-ever meeting between these programs.

Memphis vs NC State Model Projection

Final Thoughts

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.