The Arkansas State Red Wolves (5-5) will host the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (4-6) in a Sun Belt Conference game that carries huge bowl-eligibility implications. Arkansas State needs a win to get to six wins, while Louisiana needs to win two straight to get to bowl season. Here, I break down this matchup in the Sun Belt and give you my Louisiana vs Arkansas State prediction for Thursday night’s game.
Our Louisiana vs Arkansas State Pick
- Pick: Arkansas State -2.5
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns vs Arkansas State Red Wolves
- Date & Time: Thursday, November 20, 2025, 7:30 PM ET
- Venue: Centennial Bank Stadium, Jonesboro, Arkansas
- Broadcast: ESPN
Key Storylines
This game is important for both teams late in the regular season. Arkansas State has five wins and is 4-2 in the Sun Belt. A win would get them to six wins and bowl eligibility. It could also help the Red Wolves catch up to Southern Miss in the Sun Belt West standings with the regular season nearly done. Louisiana would control its own destiny for bowl season with a win in this game, while a loss would make it impossible for them to get to six wins.
Louisiana’s dual-threat quarterback, Lunch Winfield, is the X-factor. Winfield has been efficient through the air (over 1,000 passing yards this season) and dangerous on the ground (over 250 rushing yards). He is one of the more dynamic playmakers in the Sun Belt and will try to use his unpredictable nature to punish the Arkansas State defense.
Quarterback Play
The aforementioned Winfield has been a critical piece of the Cajuns’ offense. He’s thrown for 1,095 yards with 10 touchdowns and 6 interceptions so far. On the ground, he’s added 502 yards and 7 rushing touchdowns. Winfield will look to build on a performance where he threw three touchdown passes against Texas State. Arkansas State’s Jaylen Raynor has thrown for 2,454 yards on the season, completing 68.2% of his attempts. But he’s also thrown 10 interceptions, which raises concerns about turnovers at key moments.
Betting Trends
- Arkansas State is 5-0 ATS at home this season and 7-3 against the spread overall.
- Louisiana is 5-5 against the spread so far this year.
- The Ragin’ Cajuns have gone over the total in 6 of their first 10 games.
- The under has cashed in 8 of Arkansas State’s 10 games.
Louisiana vs Arkansas State Model Projection
Score Projection: Arkansas State 30 – Louisiana 24
Win Probability: Arkansas State 58%, Louisiana 42%
Final Thoughts
Arkansas State has been excellent at home so far this season and I expect that to continue in this contest. Look for the Ragin’ Cajuns to struggle offensively on the road here after they put up 42 points at home in their last game. The Red Wolves will limit Winfield and get a win to keep the pressure on Southern Miss in the Sun Belt West. I recommend laying the points with Arkansas State on Thursday night.
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