Jacksonville State vs Southern Miss Pick & Prediction - 9/27/2025
Updated September 26, 2025
Updated September 26, 2025
Jacksonville State (2-2) will head to Hattiesburg on Saturday to challenge Southern Miss (2-2) in a non-conference tilt. The Golden Eagles come in as modest favorites, while the Gamecocks will look to score their first road win of the 2025 season. Here, I break down this college football matchup on Saturday night and bring you my Jacksonville State vs Southern Miss prediction.
Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
Southern Miss –3.5 | SMISS –170 / JSU +145 | 56.5 |
One key narrative going into this game is Southern Miss’ recent performance on offense. The Golden Eagles rank 48th nationally in third-down conversions at 44.6% and have been reasonably efficient in the red zone with an 81.3% scoring rate. Jacksonville State has struggled defensively on third downs, allowing conversions at about a 46.4% clip. That gives Southern Miss an edge in sustaining drives.
Jacksonville State has battled with defensive inconsistencies all year. Generous third-down defense and occasional breakdowns in pass coverage have allowed opposing offenses to stay on the field. The Gamecocks have to force turnovers and limit big plays.
The Golden Eagles lean on Braylon Braxton at quarterback. He’s thrown for 1,084 yards, nine touchdowns, and three interceptions this season. He is completing roughly 65.8% of his pass attempts. He also carries some mobility, though his rushing numbers haven’t been a major factor.
Gavin Wimsatt is the Jacksonville State quarterback. He is averaging under 150 passing yards per game, as the Gamecocks prefer to use their running game to keep their offense moving on schedule. Still, Wimsatt has yet to throw for 200 yards in a game and needs to change that for his team to win again this week.
Score Projection: Southern Miss 28 – Jacksonville State 24
Win Probability: SMISS 56%, JSU 44%
Southern Miss holds a few matchup edges that may prove decisive in this game. Their superior passing attack, third-down conversion rate, and red-zone execution suggest the Eagles will be able to sustain drives more effectively. Jacksonville State can make it a tight game with a strong running game and by forcing turnovers. But unless they force mistakes, Southern Miss should prevail at home. I will lay the points with the Golden Eagles in a game where the winner will be above the .500 mark on the season.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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