Buffalo vs Minnesota Pick & Prediction – 8/28/25
Updated October 22, 2026
Updated October 22, 2026
The Buffalo Bulls traveled to Minneapolis on August 28, 2025, to face the Minnesota Golden Gophers in a Week 1 college football matchup. Minnesota entered as a heavy favorite, but Buffalo was coming off a nine-win season and had enough defensive experience to make the opener competitive.
Our original Buffalo vs Minnesota prediction backed the Bulls to cover the 17.5-point spread, with Minnesota expected to win by approximately two touchdowns. The Golden Gophers eventually secured a 23–10 victory, giving Buffalo a successful cover despite the loss.
Here's a look at the original betting odds, our pregame analysis, and the key moments that decided the game.
Original prediction | Details |
|---|---|
Pick | Buffalo +17.5 |
Confidence | 3/5 |
Projected score | Minnesota 38, Buffalo 24 |
Minnesota win probability | 82% |
Buffalo win probability | 18% |
Final score | Minnesota 23, Buffalo 10 |
Betting result | Win |
Minnesota had the stronger roster and a clear advantage in overall talent. However, the Golden Gophers were introducing a new starting quarterback, and there was reason to expect some early offensive inconsistency.
Buffalo, meanwhile, had a veteran defense and enough experience to remain competitive.
The original pick anticipated a Minnesota victory without a comfortable spread cover.
That proved accurate, as the Golden Gophers won by 13 points.
For upcoming matchups, see our college football picks and predictions.
Detail | Information |
|---|---|
Matchup | Buffalo Bulls at Minnesota Golden Gophers |
Date | Thursday, August 28, 2025 |
Kickoff | 8:00 PM ET |
Venue | Huntington Bank Stadium |
Location | Minneapolis, Minnesota |
Broadcast | FS1 |
Final score | Minnesota 23, Buffalo 10 |
Minnesota entered the season opener as a substantial favorite against its Mid-American Conference opponent.
Team | Spread | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|
Buffalo | +17.5 | +700 |
Minnesota | -17.5 | -1200 |
Original over/under: 44.5 points
These are the historical odds published in our original August 2025 preview. They are included for reference and are no longer available.
The 17.5-point spread reflected Minnesota's advantages in roster depth, home field, and overall defensive quality.
However, Buffalo entered the season with legitimate expectations of competing for the MAC title.
The Bulls also had experience in several important defensive positions, making them a potentially difficult opponent for a quarterback making his first collegiate start.
Our original analysis favored Minnesota to win but considered the spread too large.
Buffalo entered 2025 following a successful 9–4 campaign under head coach Pete Lembo.
The Bulls finished the previous season with a victory over Liberty in the Bahamas Bowl, providing momentum heading into Lembo's second year.
Their defense was expected to be one of the team's biggest strengths.
Buffalo returned several experienced defenders, including linebacker Red Murdock, who had established himself as one of the MAC's most productive defensive players.
The Bulls had enough talent in their defensive front to challenge Minnesota's offensive line and potentially disrupt its running game.
Offensively, Buffalo was preparing for a change at quarterback.
Ta'Quan Roberson arrived with previous experience at Penn State, UConn, and Kansas State.
Roberson had accumulated more than 2,100 career passing yards entering the season, giving Buffalo an experienced option at a position that can be difficult to replace.
The Bulls also had running back Al-Jay Henderson, who provided an important part of their offensive production.
Buffalo's challenge was to control possession, avoid turnovers, and prevent Minnesota from establishing a comfortable early lead.
Minnesota entered the 2025 season following an 8–5 campaign that ended with a Duke's Mayo Bowl victory over Virginia Tech.
Head coach P.J. Fleck had established a competitive program built around physical football and a strong defense.
The Golden Gophers were expected to have an advantage against Buffalo in the trenches, particularly with their experienced defensive front.
However, the offense faced an important transition.
Quarterback Max Brosmer had departed after the 2024 season, leaving redshirt freshman Drake Lindsey to take over.
Lindsey entered the opener with just five collegiate pass attempts.
His lack of experience was one of the main reasons to question Minnesota's ability to cover such a large spread.
The Golden Gophers could rely on running back Darius Taylor, who was expected to play a significant role in the offense.
Taylor's production gave Minnesota a reliable way to move the football while Lindsey adjusted to his new responsibilities.
The question was how quickly the passing game would develop.
A conservative offensive approach could produce a comfortable Minnesota victory without generating enough points to cover the spread.
Drake Lindsey was making his first collegiate start.
Although Minnesota had reason to be optimistic about his potential, there was uncertainty surrounding how efficiently the offense would operate.
A quarterback's first start can involve adjustments to game speed, defensive pressure, and decision-making.
Minnesota had enough talent to win the game, but expecting an immediate offensive breakout was a more difficult proposition.
That made Buffalo attractive with 17.5 points.
The Bulls entered the season with several returning defensive starters.
Their experience offered a possible advantage against a Minnesota offense still establishing its identity.
Buffalo did not necessarily need to shut down the Golden Gophers to cover the spread.
A few defensive stops, combined with a controlled offensive approach, could keep the final margin within three possessions.
The Bulls' ability to challenge Minnesota early was central to the original recommendation.
Fleck's teams have often relied on physical football, field position, and a productive running game.
That approach can be effective for winning games but does not always produce large scoring margins.
With a new quarterback and a capable MAC opponent, Minnesota had reason to prioritize execution over an aggressive offensive strategy.
The original prediction anticipated a game in which the Golden Gophers would eventually establish control but struggle to pull away by more than two touchdowns.
Minnesota entered the 2025 matchup with an unbeaten record against Buffalo.
The programs had previously met in 2002 and 2017, with Minnesota winning both contests.
Their most recent meeting had taken place in Fleck's first game as Minnesota head coach.
The Golden Gophers won that matchup 17–7 in 2017.
The original preview also highlighted several historical betting trends:
These trends provided background information, although roster changes and quarterback uncertainty were more important to the 2025 matchup.
The original ATS.io model favored Minnesota to win by 14 points.
Projection | Original estimate |
|---|---|
Minnesota points | 38 |
Buffalo points | 24 |
Projected margin | Minnesota by 14 |
Minnesota win probability | 82% |
Buffalo win probability | 18% |
The projected margin supported Buffalo +17.5.
Although Minnesota was expected to win comfortably, a 14-point victory would still leave Buffalo covering the spread by 3.5 points.
The actual game was considerably lower scoring than projected.
However, the 13-point final margin was close to the model's expected 14-point difference.
For additional game comparisons, visit our college football matchup pages.
Minnesota opened its 2025 season with a 23–10 victory at Huntington Bank Stadium.
The Golden Gophers controlled much of the game statistically, but Buffalo remained within striking distance until the fourth quarter.
Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Buffalo | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 10 |
Minnesota | 0 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 23 |
Neither team scored in the opening quarter.
Minnesota broke through early in the second when Lindsey connected with tight end Jameson Geers for a nine-yard touchdown.
Buffalo responded with a field goal, and Minnesota added another just before halftime to take a 10–3 lead.
The Golden Gophers extended their advantage to 13–3 early in the third quarter.
Buffalo then produced its biggest offensive play of the night.
Roberson connected with Victor Snow for a 40-yard touchdown, reducing the deficit to 13–10.
The Bulls entered the fourth quarter trailing by only three points.
Minnesota added a field goal to extend its lead to 16–10 before Lindsey found Jalen Smith for a 60-yard touchdown.
That score gave the Golden Gophers a 23–10 advantage with just under 11 minutes remaining.
Neither team scored again.
Minnesota won the game, but Buffalo covered the spread.
Minnesota dominated several important statistical categories.
The Golden Gophers finished with 443 total yards compared with just 151 for Buffalo.
Statistic | Buffalo | Minnesota |
|---|---|---|
Total yards | 151 | 443 |
Passing yards | 107 | 290 |
Rushing yards | 44 | 153 |
First downs | 8 | 27 |
Third-down conversions | 1/11 | 9/16 |
Time of possession | 21:32 | 38:28 |
Minnesota's offensive production was significantly stronger, particularly through the air.
Lindsey threw for 290 yards and two touchdowns in his first start.
Taylor contributed 141 rushing yards, helping Minnesota control possession and sustain drives.
The Golden Gophers also converted nine of 16 third downs, compared with just one of 11 for Buffalo.
Despite those advantages, Minnesota struggled to turn its yardage into touchdowns.
The Golden Gophers scored only twice in the game and relied on three field goals.
That inability to consistently finish drives played an important role in Buffalo's spread cover.
Lindsey completed his first collegiate start with 290 passing yards and two touchdowns.
His nine-yard touchdown pass to Geers opened the scoring, while his 60-yard connection with Smith helped Minnesota pull away in the fourth quarter.
The performance was an encouraging start for the young quarterback.
Taylor finished with 141 rushing yards and played a major role in Minnesota's offensive production.
His running helped the Golden Gophers maintain possession and control the tempo.
Smith contributed one of the game's decisive plays with his 60-yard touchdown reception in the fourth quarter.
He finished with 76 receiving yards.
Buffalo struggled to establish its offense against Minnesota's defensive front.
Roberson completed 12 of 20 passes for 107 yards and one touchdown.
Snow led the Bulls with five receptions for 67 yards, including the 40-yard touchdown that brought Buffalo within three points.
Henderson was held to 25 rushing yards as Minnesota limited Buffalo's ground attack.
The Bulls' defense delivered a more competitive performance.
Linebacker Red Murdock recorded 16 tackles and a sack, while Dion Crawford added 14 tackles.
Mitchell Gonser also made an important play with a 54-yard interception return that helped set up Buffalo's first points.
The defense kept Buffalo competitive for much of the game despite Minnesota's substantial advantage in total yardage.
The original ATS.io recommendation was Buffalo +17.5.
Minnesota won by 13 points, meaning Buffalo covered the spread by 4.5 points.
Betting market | Original line | Result |
|---|---|---|
Buffalo spread | +17.5 | Win |
Minnesota spread | -17.5 | Loss |
Minnesota moneyline | -1200 | Win |
Buffalo moneyline | +700 | Loss |
Over/Under | 44.5 | Under |
The original spread selection was successful.
Minnesota was clearly the stronger team and controlled the game statistically, but the final margin remained below the number required for a Golden Gophers cover.
The under also won, with the teams combining for 33 points against a total of 44.5.
Only Buffalo +17.5 was the published ATS.io pick. The other results are included for historical reference.
This matchup illustrated an important distinction between picking a winner and identifying the better spread wager.
Minnesota had a substantial advantage in talent and ultimately outgained Buffalo by 292 yards.
The Golden Gophers also dominated time of possession and first downs.
However, those advantages produced only a 13-point victory.
Buffalo's defense kept the game competitive, while Minnesota's inability to consistently finish drives limited its scoring.
The Bulls were still within three points entering the fourth quarter.
That sequence supported the original reasoning behind Buffalo +17.5.
Minnesota could be expected to win without necessarily covering a spread approaching three touchdowns.
The result also demonstrated the value of separating offensive yardage projections from scoring expectations.
Minnesota moved the ball effectively but settled for multiple field goals, helping keep the final total below expectations.
For current analysis and selections, see our best college football bets today.
Minnesota defeated Buffalo 23–10 at Huntington Bank Stadium in Minneapolis.
Our original pick was Buffalo +17.5 with a confidence rating of 3/5. Minnesota was projected to win 38–24.
Yes. Buffalo entered as a 17.5-point underdog and lost by 13 points, covering the spread by 4.5 points.
The original preview listed Minnesota at -17.5 with a -1200 moneyline. Buffalo was +17.5 with a +700 moneyline. The total was 44.5.
The under won. The teams combined for 33 points, finishing below the original total of 44.5.
Lindsey threw for 290 yards and two touchdowns in his first collegiate start, helping Minnesota secure a 23–10 victory.
Ta'Quan Roberson started for Buffalo and threw for 107 yards and one touchdown.
→ Our Take: Minnesota was the better team and deserved its 23–10 victory, but the 17.5-point spread was too generous to the home favorite. Buffalo's experienced defense kept the Bulls competitive well into the fourth quarter, while Minnesota settled for three field goals despite controlling possession and total yardage. The original Buffalo +17.5 selection was the right call, with the final margin closely matching our pregame projection.
Updated October 22, 2026
