Arizona State Sun Devils vs Duke Blue Devils Sun Bowl Prediction - 12/31/2025
Updated December 30, 2025
Updated December 30, 2025
The Arizona State Sun Devils and Duke Blue Devils will square off in the 2025 Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl on Wednesday in El Paso. Duke is coming off an ACC Championship victory and enters as a slight favorite against an Arizona State squad that finished with a solid 8-4 record. Before the Sun Devils and Blue Devils battle in the Sun Bowl, you can find my breakdown of this game and my Arizona State vs Duke prediction below.
Pick: | Duke -3 |
Confidence: | 4/5 |
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Duke enters the Sun Bowl as the favorite after winning the Atlantic Coast Conference and finishing 8-5 overall. Quarterback Darian Mensah leads an aerial attack that placed well within the FBS rankings this season, throwing for more than 3,600 yards with 30 scores against just five interceptions. He is expected to play in this game after announcing that he will come back for next season. That and the momentum from their run to the conference championship has Duke riding high going into this game.
The Sun Devils go into this contest with an 8-4 record, but they are dealing with an injury at the quarterback position. Sam Leavitt threw for over 1,600 yards this season with 10 touchdowns and three interceptions. But he is done for the season and that has left the Sun Devils to finish out the season with a backup quarterback leading their offense, which could make things tough on them against a conference championship caliber opponent.
Duke’s Darian Mensah has been the engine of the Blue Devils’ offense, ranking near the top of the FBS in passing efficiency and touchdown passes. His ability to distribute the ball and limit turnovers gives Duke a major edge in consistency when compared to Arizona State's quarterback situation.
Arizona State’s Jeff Sims provides mobility and physicality, offering a strong rushing threat to complement his passing duties in the place of Leavitt. However, Sims’ passing limitations compared to Mensah’s production could prove decisive if Duke’s defense can put together a solid 60 minutes and avoid blown coverages.
Score Projection: Arizona State 17 – Duke 27
Win Probability: Arizona State 43%, Duke 57%
I'm taking Duke to win and cover the spread in the Sun Bowl on Wednesday afternoon. Duke's quarterback situation looks a lot better than that of Arizona State, while injuries and opt-outs elsewhere have also hit the Sun Devils harder. Look for Mensah to lead Duke to a win by over a field goal in El Paso to even the all-time series between these teams at 1-1.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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