The Alabama Crimson Tide and Indiana Hoosiers will meet in the Rose Bowl on New Year’s Day in the quarterfinals of the College Football Playoff. Alabama got a road win in the opening round of the playoff over the Oklahoma Sooners, while Indiana arrives in Pasadena after a first-round bye. Before kickoff from California, continue reading to get my Alabama vs Indiana prediction before the second round of the CFP begins.
My Alabama vs Indiana Prediction
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Alabama Crimson Tide vs Indiana Hoosiers
- Date & Time: Thursday, January 1, 2026, 4:00 PM ET
- Venue: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA
- Broadcast: ABC
Alabama vs Indiana Odds
- Spread: Indiana -5.5
- Total: 48.5 Points
- Moneyline: Indiana -225, Alabama +175
Key Storylines
Alabama’s resilience is a huge storyline going into this contest. The Crimson Tide fell behind 17-0 in the first round against the Oklahoma Sooners on the road in Norman. But they fought back and scored 34 of the final 41 points of the game to win and set up this contest against the top seed in the College Football Playoff. Now Alabama has momentum and is able to play at a neutral site again.
Indiana comes into the playoff after a first-round bye. The Hoosiers last took the field in the Big Ten championship game, beating the previously-undefeated Ohio State Buckeyes to earn the top seed in this 12-team tournament. Indiana has handed several teams in this playoff their first loss of the season and will try to end Alabama’s season as well.
Quarterback Play
Ty Simpson did enough for Alabama to win in his first College Football Playoff start. Simpson had over 200 passing yards and two touchdowns against Oklahoma, avoiding any interceptions to help Alabama stay in the game. He will need to avoid putting the ball in harm’s way again in this matchup if Alabama is going to move on.
Simpson will be opposed by Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza. Mendoza won this year’s Heisman Trophy, throwing for 2,980 yards with 33 touchdown passes and just 6 interceptions. The question will be whether or not Mendoza can continue producing on the biggest stage of his career against a college football dynasty.
Betting Trends
- Alabama is 9-4-1 against the spread after covering against Oklahoma in the first round of the CFP.
- Indiana went 8-5 against the spread prior to the start of the College Football Playoff.
- The Crimson Tide have gone under the total in 8 of their 14 games this season.
- The Hoosiers are 7-6 to the over this year.
Alabama vs Indiana Model Projection
Final Thoughts
