The Michigan State Spartans and USC Trojans will meet Monday evening in what has become one of the more intriguing games in college basketball for the night. Both teams arrive with identical 12–2 records and they took losses in their most recent games. Only one of these ranked teams will bounce back and get back into the win column here. I'll tell you who I think that will be below, as I make my USC vs Michigan prediction in college hoops.
Our USC vs Michigan State Pick
Pick: | USC +11.5 |
Confidence: | 3/5 |
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: USC Trojans @ Michigan State Spartans
- Date & Time: Monday, January 5, 2026, 8:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Jack Breslin Student Events Center, East Lansing, MI
- Broadcast: FS1
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Key Storylines
- Michigan State enters this game as a strong home favorite after a 58–56 loss at Nebraska, in a defensive grind that saw Jaxon Kohler lead the Spartans with 19 points. The Spartans are expected to bounce back from their first conference loss of the season by putting together a better offensive performance than they did against the Cornhuskers.
- USC heads into East Lansing coming off a 96–66 loss at Michigan, a game where turnovers (21) and poor shooting percentages defined their night and raised questions about their ability to handle physical Big Ten defenses. With that said, Michigan might be the best team in college basketball right now and USC should look a lot more competent on both ends of the floor here.
- Both teams sit at 12–2 on the season, but Michigan State’s 2–1 conference mark is better than USC’s 1–2 Big Ten record so far. It will be interesting to see if USC can fight its way back to the .500 mark in conference play with a victory here.
- Offensively, USC averages near 88 points per game with elite-level scoring from Chad Baker-Mazara, while Michigan State averages 79 points per game and is better on the defensive end of the floor.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Michigan State is 2-1 all-time against USC.
- USC won the last meeting between these teams last season.
- Michigan State is 5-7-2 against the spread going into this contest.
- USC is 6-7 against the spread so far this year.
- The under has hit in 9 of Michigan State's first 14 games.
- USC went over the total in 8 of their 13 games.
USC vs Michigan State Model Projection
Score Projection: Michigan State 83 – USC 76
Win Probability: Michigan State 84%, USC 16%
Final Thoughts
Michigan State should be able to win on their home floor after losing to Nebraska over the weekend. But I'm going to take the points with USC on the road in this matchup. The Trojans will look a lot better than they did against Michigan in their last game. And while I don't think the Trojans will do enough to win this matchup, I do think they will keep the margin within single-digits in East Lansing.
Jay Sanin
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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