Monday’s showdown in the Maui Invitational pits the USC Trojans against the Boise State Broncos. USC is unbeaten to start the season, but needed a miracle to stay that way. Boise State suffered a shocking loss in their first game of the season but has won four straight games since then. Before tip-off from Maui, you can find my USC vs Boise State prediction below.
Our USC vs Boise State Pick
- Pick: USC –5.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: USC Trojans vs Boise State Broncos
- Date & Time: Monday, November 24, 2025, 5:00 PM ET
- Venue: Lahaina Civic Center, Lahaina, Hawaii
- Broadcast: ESPN2
Key Storylines
- USC’s explosive start: The Trojans are 4–0 entering this game. They recently survived a triple-overtime thriller against Troy, with forward Chad Baker-Mazara dropping a career-high 34 points, nine rebounds, and five blocks. Rodney Rice added 26 points and nine assists. Being in a triple-overtime game against Troy sounds worse than it actually is, as Troy beat San Diego State during that road trip and looks like a very good team out of the Sun Belt.
- Boise State’s resilience: After an opening-night upset loss to a Division II team, the Broncos have responded, winning four in a row. They come in eager to make a statement on a national stage.
- Pressure of Maui: The compact, crowded environment in Lahaina makes this tournament feel more like a high-stakes game than a preseason showcase. Both coaches (USC’s Eric Musselman and Boise State’s Leon Rice) have spoken about the weight and intensity of this setting and both teams will try to overcome the pressure to advance in the main bracket.
- Star power vs. depth: USC boasts top-end talent, especially in its bigs and playmakers. But Boise State counters with a cohesive rotation and a balanced scoring attack. The Broncos’ veterans know how to grind and stay in games. They will need all of the toughness they can muster to hang with USC here.
Betting Trends
- Against the Spread (ATS): USC is 3-1 against the spread to start the season. Boise State is 2-2 against the spread, not counting their outright loss to Hawaii Pacific.
- Over/Unders: The Trojans are 2-2 in the over/under market so far this season. Boise State has seen three of its first four games go under their totals against Division I competition.
USC vs Boise State Model Projection
Score Projection: USC 78 – Boise State 71
Win Probability: USC 72%, Boise State 28%
Final Thoughts
I'm worried about what we've seen from Boise State early in the season. The Broncos have won four games in a row since their loss to a team from beneath the Division I level. But they haven't played anyone of note since then and I'm expecting them to struggle here against a USC team with some legitimate star power. I'll lay the points with the Trojans in this contest.
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