Texas Tech and Purdue will square off in the Baha Mar Championship final on Friday in Nassau, Bahamas. Both teams won tight games to get to this final, with Texas Tech escaping against Wake Forest and Purdue surviving a scare from Memphis. These top 15 teams are playing for a tournament title as well as a chance to greatly improve their seeding prospects for NCAA Tournament purposes down the road. Here, I have broken down this matchup and you can find my Texas Tech vs Purdue prediction below.
Our Texas Tech vs Purdue Pick
Pick: Purdue –4
Confidence: 4/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Purdue Boilermakers
- Date & Time: Friday, November 21, 2025, 9:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Baha Mar Convention, Arts & Entertainment Center, Nassau, Bahamas
- Broadcast: CBS Sports Network
Key Storylines
- Purdue seeks its fifth straight Feast-Week tournament title. The Boilermakers have won four straight multi-team events and are looking to keep the streak alive in the Bahamas.
- Texas Tech’s grit under pressure. The Red Raiders eked out an 84–83 win over Wake Forest thanks to strong performances from JT Toppin and Christian Anderson. Their ability to deliver in high-pressure situations will be tested again in this game.
- Star duos are clashing. Purdue leans on Braden Smith as the floor general and Trey Kaufman-Renn on the boards, while Texas Tech rides the production of Toppin and Anderson. This isn’t a 2-on-2 game by any means, but the duo that performs the best in this game will definitely give their team an advantage.
- Perimeter duel brewing. Texas Tech is shooting a high volume of threes, averaging 12 made threes per game. Purdue has allowed opponents to hit 9.6 threes per contest so far. If Texas Tech gets hot from beyond the arc, they could end Purdue’s MTE streak.
- Depth advantage for Purdue. Beyond Smith and Kaufman-Renn, Purdue gets strong contributions from Fletcher Loyer and CJ Cox. They have multiple scoring threats and will try to use those threats to get a win here.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Both of these teams are 1-4 against the spread so far this season.
- The over has cashed in three of Texas Tech’s first five games.
- The under has hit in three of Purdue’s first five outings of the year.
Texas Tech vs Purdue Model Projection
Score Projection: Purdue 81 – Texas Tech 76
Win Probability: Purdue 65%, Texas Tech 35%
Final Thoughts
This game could very well come down simply to which team shoots the ball better from three-point range. I think that team will be the Purdue Boilermakers, who have experience winning these types of neutral-site events and already have an impressive win over Alabama under their belt. I’ll lay the points with Purdue in Nassau tonight.
Affiliate Disclosure
ATS.io uses affiliate links. If you sign up through a link on this page, we may earn a commission at no additional cost to you. Rankings are based on hands-on testing and published criteria, and affiliate relationships do not determine placement.
