Updated March 25, 2026
The Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament begins on Thursday as Texas faces Purdue at SAP Center in San Jose. Purdue enters as one of the most reliable teams in the country, fresh off a pair of double-digit wins to reach this stage, while Texas has battled through an up-and-down season to make a deep run of their own. Here, I break down this matchup in college hoops and make my Texas vs Purdue prediction in the betting markets.
Purdue continues to validate its status as a national title contender. The Boilermakers improved to 29-8 after a convincing tournament win over Miami in the second round of the tournament, fueled by elite shooting efficiency and strong guard play. Texas, meanwhile, sits at 21-14 and has leaned on its interior play to advance from the First Four to the Sweet 16.
Texas comes into this game off one of the most impressive wins of the tournament so far, upsetting Gonzaga in the round of 32. The Longhorns were physical enough to make things tough on Graham Ike on the interior and will try to do the same to Trey Kaufman-Renn of the Boilermakers.
Purdue Boilermakers
Texas Longhorns
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Stat | Texas | Purdue |
|---|---|---|
Points per game | 82.9 | 82.2 |
Points allowed per game | 76.1 | 70.1 |
Team Field Goal % | 48% | 50% |
Rebounds per game | 37.7 | 35.3 |
Assists per game | 12.5 | 19.9 |
The Boilermakers shoot efficiently, move the ball well, and have multiple scoring options. Their recent performance against Miami, including a high-level showing from Fletcher Loyer, highlights a team peaking at the right time. Texas can stay competitive if Vokietaitis has another huge game on the interior, but the Longhorns have struggled with consistency on both ends.
The difference likely comes down to execution in half-court sets. Purdue’s ability to generate quality looks and limit turnovers gives it a clear advantage. Texas may keep things close early, but over 40 minutes, Purdue’s efficiency should help them create separation. I'll lay the points with the Boilermakers in this Sweet 16 matchup.
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