The Purdue Boilermakers make a trip to the West Coast on Saturday when they face the USC Trojans at the Galen Center in Los Angeles. The Boilermakers (16-1, 6-0 Big Ten) have been one of the most consistent teams in college basketball this season, riding an eight-game winning streak and owning a flawless conference record. The Trojans (14-3, 3-3 Big Ten) enter this contest with two straight wins and eyeing an upset. Before tip-off from LA, keep reading to get my Purdue vs USC prediction.
Our Purdue vs USC Pick
Pick: | USC +8.5 ATS PRO |
Confidence: | 3/5 |
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Purdue Boilermakers @ USC Trojans
- Date & Time: January 17, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
- Venue: Galen Center, Los Angeles, California
- Broadcast: Peacock
Key Storylines
- Purdue has roared through the season with a 16-1 record and an 8-game winning streak, including recent victories over quality opponents like Iowa and Penn State. Braden Smith’s playmaking and Fletcher Loyer’s scoring have been central to their success. The Boilermakers also control tempo exceptionally well and rank near the top of the country in offensive efficiency. Their disciplined offense and ability to limit turnovers give them a significant advantage in tight situations.
- USC has been highly competitive this season but has dealt with injuries to key contributors, including leading scorer Rodney Rice who is out for the season and Chad Baker-Mazara, managing a neck issue. Still, the Trojans secured an 88-71 win over Maryland in their last game with balanced scoring from Jordan Marsh and others, signaling they can compete when shooting efficiently and controlling the boards.
- The Trojans’ perimeter shooting and defensive rebounding have been inconsistent, while Purdue excels in ball movement and field goal efficiency. USC will need to clean up turnovers and hit a high percentage of 3-pointers to keep this game within striking distance at home. Purdue’s assist-to-turnover ratio and rebounding edge could dictate the flow if USC can't even things out from deep.
- Chad Baker-Mazara spent time with the Purdue program before transferring to USC. CBM might not play in this game after missing most of the Maryland win with a sore neck. But if he does play, it will be fascinating to see how he performs against his old team.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Purdue leads the all-time series against USC 5-4 and defeated the Trojans in both meetings last year.
- Purdue is 9-8 against the spread this season.
- USC is 8-8 against the spread heading into Saturday's action.
- The under is 9-8 in games involving Purdue this season.
- The over has hit in 9 of USC's first 16 games.
Purdue vs USC Model Projection
Score Projection: Purdue 83 – USC 78 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Purdue 72%, USC 28% ATS PRO
Final Thoughts
While I don't think that USC will win outright against Purdue on Saturday, I do think that the Trojans will find a way to cover the spread on their home floor. Baker-Mazara playing would be huge for the hopes of the Trojans in this contest. Either way, I'll take the points with USC in what should be a competitive game out west.
Jay Sanin
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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