Updated January 16, 2026
Friday night’s Mid-American Conference matchup between the Ohio Bobcats and the Ball State Cardinals features two teams that have had very different starts to MAC play. Ohio travels to John E. Worthen Arena in Muncie to take on a Ball State squad that has struggled in 2025‑26 but will lean on home-court advantage in search of its first conference win. Oddsmakers have installed the Bobcats as favorites, but there are no sure things in the MAC. Before tip-off, continue reading to find my Ohio vs Ball State prediction.
Pick: | Ohio -5.5 ATS PRO |
Confidence: | 2/5 |
Ohio enters this game with momentum in the Mid‑American Conference after opening league play with a loss. The Bobcats have won four of their last five games and bring a balanced scoring attack to Muncie, led by senior guard Jackson Paveletzke, who averages over 17 points and nearly five assists per game. Forward Aidan Hadaway leads the club in rebounds while scoring in double figures as well. Ohio’s shooting efficiency and glass presence separate it from a Ball State team that ranks near the bottom of Division I in scoring and field goal percentage. The Cardinals’ offense has struggled to consistently generate points, putting pressure on their defense to keep them in games.
Redshirt junior forward Javan Simmons posted a season‑high 21 points in the Bobcats’ most recent loss to Toledo, showing he can carry a scoring load when needed. Ohio’s senior leadership and balanced scoring make them tough to beat, even when the Bobcats are on the road. Ball State, meanwhile, has lost five straight in conference play and is averaging fewer than 70 points per contest, a clear disadvantage in this matchup where tempo and scoring opportunities could tilt the advantage toward Ohio.
Score Projection: Ohio 75 – Ball State 69 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Ohio 62%, Ball State 38% ATS PRO
Ohio should be able to continue its move up the MAC standings by winning and covering the spread against Ball State here. Home-court advantage hasn't meant much for Ball State this season, as they are just 3-4 on their home floor. And with two of those three home wins coming against non-Division I opponents, I'm not expecting much from the Cardinals in this Friday night MACtion.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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