The Northern Arizona Lumberjacks and the Drake Bulldogs will open their seasons against one another on Monday afternoon. Drake is under new leadership and has a mostly revamped roster, but they are still heavy favorites in this neutral site matchup from Sioux Falls. Here, I break down this non-conference matchup and give you my Northern Arizona vs Drake prediction.
Our Northern Arizona vs Drake Pick
- Pick: Drake -10.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Northern Arizona @ Drake
- Date & Time: Monday, November 3, 2025, 4:00 PM ET
- Venue: Sanford Pentagon, Sioux Falls, South Dakota
- Broadcast: YouTube
Key Storylines
- Drake is under a brand-new head coach, Eric Henderson, who arrives after six seasons at South Dakota State and brings wholesale roster turnover with him. Only two players return from last year’s squad and the rest are transfers/freshmen. The Bulldogs should still be good, but they will have to adjust to a lot of changes early this season.
- Northern Arizona is led by coach Shane Burcar in his seventh season. He also enters with major roster turnover to overcome. The Lumberjacks have only three returners, plus seven transfers and four true freshmen. The Lumberjacks enter the season ranked 10th in the Big Sky preseason poll.
- This game is a neutral‐site event at the Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls, SD. That should prevent either team from having a big crowd advantage in their favor. But Drake's fanbase is one of the most passionate in the Missouri Valley and they could end up with more support than NAU in this game.
- Northern Arizona's defense is expected to struggle on defense early in the season. They are barely in the top-300 in the country in defensive rating according to Kenpom's defensive metrics. That should put them at a substantial disadvantage against a Drake team whose coach comes from a recent history of success in the Summit League.
- Drake is coming off a season where they went to the NCAA Tournament. They won the Missouri Valley Conference championship last year and won a first-round game in the NCAA Tournament against Missouri before falling against Texas A&M in the second round.
Northern Arizona vs Drake Model Projection
Score Projection: Northern Arizona 65 – Drake 77
Win Probability: Northern Arizona 18%, Drake 82%
Final Thoughts
We should see the Drake Bulldogs roll in their season opener from South Dakota on Monday afternoon. The Bulldogs should take full advantage of playing one of the worse defensive teams in college basketball. We should see the Eric Henderson era at Drake get off to a strong start here. I'll lay the points with Drake in this neutral-site matchup.
Jay Sanin
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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