Updated March 17, 2026
The NC State Wolfpack and Texas Longhorns will meet in the First Four of the NCAA Tournament on Tuesday night. Both teams did just enough to claim at-large bids from power conferences and will try to make it all happen here to advance to the round of 64. Who will move onto Thursday's first-round action? Continue reading to get my NC State vs Texas prediction below.
This First Four contest features two teams that have shown flashes of high-level offense throughout the season. NC State finished the regular season 20-12 and built its attack around ball movement and perimeter efficiency. The Wolfpack averages 83.7 points per game while shooting 46.7% from the field and 38% from beyond the arc, numbers that reflect a group capable of putting pressure on opposing defenses. Texas enters with a roster built around size and rebounding dominance. Their physical interior presence creates second-chance opportunities and limits opponents to fewer possessions.
The teams already met earlier this season in a high-scoring contest that Texas won 102-97. That game featured excellent offensive production from both sides and showcased how evenly matched these rosters are. The Longhorns hit 16 three pointers in that meeting, while NC State dominated points in the paint. With such a narrow margin previously, bettors should expect another competitive contest.
Texas Longhorns
NC State Wolfpack
Stat | NC State | Texas |
|---|---|---|
Points per game | 83.7 | 83.8 |
Team Field Goal % | 47% | 49% |
Rebounds Per Game | 34.7 | 37.7 |
Assists Per Game | 15.6 | 12.3 |
ATS PRO Score Projection: NC State 84 - Texas 80
ATS PRO Pick: NC State -1.5
ATS PRO Confidence: 3 out of 5
ATS PRO Win Probability: NC State 57%, Texas 43%
This game projects as one of the more competitive contests of the opening round. Texas has a slight edge on the glass and can stretch defenses with perimeter shooting, but NC State’s guard play and offensive balance give the Wolfpack several ways to generate points. Copeland’s ability to control tempo and Williams’ scoring versatility should allow NC State to counter Texas’ size advantage. I will go with NC State to win and cover the number in what should be the best game of the First Four.
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