Tuesday night brings a high-octane Mid-American clash as unbeaten Miami (OH) heads to Alumni Arena to face Buffalo. Miami (OH) has been a headline team through January with an explosive offense that buries opponents from deep and at the rim. Buffalo has cooled after a fast start, yet the Bulls remain dangerous in this gym and already pushed Miami (OH) to overtime in Oxford on January 17. Here, I break down this matchup and make my Miami (OH) vs Buffalo prediction in college hoops.
Our Miami (OH) vs Buffalo Pick
Pick: Miami (OH) -5.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 4/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Miami OH RedHawks @ Buffalo Bulls
- Date & Time: Tuesday, February 3, 6:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Alumni Arena, Buffalo, New York
- Broadcast: ESPN Plus
Key Storylines
- Undefeated surge: Miami (OH) enters at 22-0 overall with a 14-5 record against the number and an 8-0 road mark. The RedHawks are shooting 54% from the field and about 41% from three, elite clips that have fueled consistent overs and have made them incredibly hard to beat so far this season.
- Bulls at home: Buffalo sits 14-8 overall, 12-8 against the spread, and 6-5 at Alumni Arena. The offense averages roughly 80 points per game, but defensive efficiency has slipped against high-end offensive opponents.
- Star power: Miami (OH)’s Brant Byers leads the RedHawks at 15.3 points per game with Eian Elmer pacing the boards. For Buffalo, Daniel Freitag headlines their offense at 20.3 points per game, while Noah Batchelor leads the Bulls in rebounds.
- Recent thriller: The January 17 meeting between these teams in Oxford finished 105-102 to Miami (OH) in overtime.
- At-large implications: Miami (OH) comes into this game with an undefeated record for the season and a top-25 ranking. At some point there needs to be a conversation around whether or not this team deserves an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament. But for that to come to fruition, Miami (OH) needs to keep winning games.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Past meetings: Miami (OH) 105, Buffalo 102 in overtime on January 17. The RedHawks also swept the season series between these teams last year.
- ATS and totals: Miami (OH) is 14-5 ATS and 14-5 to the over this season. Buffalo is 12-8 ATS and 12-8 to the over. The last three meetings have produced two overs and one push on the total.
- Home and road: Miami (OH) is 8-0 away from home. Buffalo is 6-5 at Alumni Arena.
Miami (OH) vs Buffalo Model Projection
Score Projection: Miami OH 88 – Buffalo 80
Win Probability: Miami OH 66%, Buffalo 34%
Final Thoughts
Miami (OH) brings superior shooting and consistent road form into a gym where they have had success in the past. Buffalo will score, but their perimeter defense has been vulnerable against high-volume outside shooters. I'm projecting a win for Miami (OH) by eight points, with the RedHawks covering the number and staying undefeated, as they continue to craft a pretty compelling at-large resume.
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