McNeese Cowboys vs Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks Prediction For the Southland Conference Championship

The Southland Conference championship brings together the two best teams in the league as the McNeese Cowboys face the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks on Wednesday night. Both programs have enjoyed excellent seasons and now sit one win away from an automatic berth in the NCAA Tournament. Stephen F. Austin enters the title game with a 28-4 record and the top seed in the conference, while McNeese arrives at 27-5 after another strong campaign that included a deep postseason run a year ago. Oddsmakers have installed McNeese as a slight favorite for this winner-take-all McNeese vs Stephen F. Austin matchup.

Our McNeese vs Stephen F. Austin Pick

Pick:

Confidence: 3 out of 5

Game Snapshot

• Matchup: McNeese Cowboys vs Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
• Date & Time: Wednesday, March 11, 5:00 PM ET
• Venue: The Legacy Center, Lake Charles, Louisiana
• Broadcast: ESPN2

Key Storylines

The Southland Conference championship typically features the league’s two strongest teams, and that is exactly the case here. Stephen F. Austin secured the regular season title with a 20-2 conference record, while McNeese finished right behind at 19-3. Both teams have spent the season dominating league competition with strong defensive numbers and efficient offense.

Another storyline centers on fatigue. McNeese survived a dramatic 84-80 triple overtime victory in the semifinal round. While that win showed the Cowboys’ toughness, it also means they played far more minutes than Stephen F. Austin, which may become a factor late in the game.

The third storyline involves pace and efficiency. McNeese averages over 80 points per game and prefers an up-tempo style with aggressive perimeter play. Stephen F. Austin counters with a disciplined half-court defense that allows fewer than 66 points per game.

Key Players

Stephen F. Austin

• Keon Thompson leads the Lumberjacks with 18.3 points and 4.4 assists per game while shooting close to 50% from the field. He runs the offense and is the primary scoring option in late-game situations.
• Jerald Colonel anchors the interior with 7.3 rebounds per game and strong rim protection. His presence inside helps Stephen F. Austin control the glass.
• Lateef Patrick adds perimeter defense and contributes 1.4 steals per game, helping disrupt opposing guards.

McNeese

• Larry Johnson leads the Cowboys with 17.5 points and 5.5 rebounds per game. He is a versatile scorer who can attack the basket or score from midrange.
• Garwey Dual averages 4.3 assists per game and directs the offense. His ability to create opportunities for teammates is critical to McNeese’s scoring output.
• Jerrell Colbert provides rim protection with more than one block per game and adds physical defense in the paint.

Stat Comparison

Head-to-Head & Betting Trends

Past meetings this season

• McNeese defeated Stephen F. Austin 66-64 in Lake Charles.
• Stephen F. Austin defeated McNeese 67-60 in Nacogdoches.

ATS records this season

• McNeese is 12-15-1 ATS this year.
• Stephen F. Austin is 22-7 against the spread for the season.

McNeese vs Stephen F. Austin Model Projection

Score Projection:

Win Probability:

Final Thoughts

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Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.

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