Updated March 20, 2026
The Round of 32 of this year's NCAA Tournament includes a compelling clash as Louisville faces Michigan State on Saturday. Both teams advanced with strong opening performances, setting up a game that matches Louisville’s shot-making ability up against Michigan State’s balance and interior presence. Here, I break downt his matchup and bring you my Louisville vs Michigan State prediction.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MrlOSSw-MUY
Louisville enters this game after an 83-79 win over South Florida, a contest that showcased both its offensive upside and its vulnerability with turnovers. The Cardinals shot over 50% from the field and were dominant from three-point range, but nearly let a big lead slip away. That inconsistency is something bettors should note heading into the second round.
Michigan State cruised in its opener with a 92-67 victory over North Dakota State. The Spartans shot 59% from the field and displayed strong ball movement, recording double-digit assists from lead guard Jeremy Fears. Their ability to control the paint and limit mistakes gives them a more stable statistical base entering this game.
Michigan State Spartans
Louisville Cardinals
Stat | Louisville | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
Points per game | 84.7 | 79.3 |
Points allowed per game | 72.4 | 68.4 |
Team Field Goal % | 47% | 47% |
Rebounds per game | 38.5 | 39.7 |
Assists per game | 17.1 | 18.7 |
Louisville: 17-17 ATS
Michigan State: 16-15-2 ATS
Louisville: 15-19 O/U
Michigan State: 16-17 O/U
Michigan State enters this game with a more consistent statistical output, particularly on defense and in the assist-to-turnover ratio. The Spartans’ ability to control the paint and generate efficient looks gives them a steady edge against a Louisville team that relies heavily on perimeter shooting. With Brown's absence likely to hurt Louisville again, I'll lay the points with Sparty, who should end up in the Sweet 16 once again under Tom Izzo.
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