The Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament includes an opening-round matchup between the Jacksonville Dolphins and the Bellarmine Knights on Wednesday afternoon, with both teams looking to extend their seasons past the first round. These two squads finished with nearly identical records, each posting 12 wins and 7-11 records in ASUN play heading into this contest. Who will advance to the next round? Continue reading for my Jacksonville vs Bellarmine prediction in the betting markets.
Our Jacksonville vs Bellarmine Pick
Pick: Jacksonville ML (+105) ATS PRO
Confidence: 3 out of 5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Jacksonville Dolphins @ Bellarmine Knights
- Date & Time: Tuesday, March 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET
- Venue: UNF Arena, Jacksonville, Florida
- Broadcast: ESPN+
Key Storylines
- Both teams went 7-11 in the ASUN this season and will try to move on with a win to get to 8-11 here. They both got wins in their final regular-season matchups, meaning they have at least some confidence heading into conference tournament time.
- Bellarmine, with quality three-point shooting, has shown the ability to outscore opponents but has struggled defensively and allows nearly 73 points per game.
- In their January matchup, the Knights won by seven despite a strong showing from Jacksonville’s Hayden Wood, signaling this could again be close late.
Key Players
Jacksonville Dolphins
- Hayden Wood – Leading scorer, averaging about 11.5 points per game, capable of creating his own shot and providing perimeter scoring when needed.
- Jason Thirdkill Jr. – Team rebounding leader, pulling down around 5.3 rebounds per game, which fuels Jacksonville’s second-chance points and possessions.
- Evan Sterck – Point guard averaging over 3 assists per outing, crucial for setting the pace and facilitating the Jacksonville offense.
Bellarmine Knights
- Kenyon Goodin – Top scorer in the January 22 meeting between these teams with 24 points. His ability to hit from range and attack off the bounce keeps Bellarmine competitive.
- Jack Karasinski – Reliable contributor who can space the floor and make timely shots. His presence keeps defenses honest, as he averages a team-high 21.3 points and 4.8 rebounds per game.
- Brian Waddell – Provides complementary scoring and energy inside, which will be key against a Dolphins frontcourt that fights for every rebound.
Stat Comparison
Statistic | Jacksonville | Bellarmine |
|---|
Points per game | 72.9 | 80.2 |
Points allowed per game | 73.1 | 81.6 |
Team Field Goal % | 46% | 52% |
Rebounds per game | 33.8 | 27.9 |
Assists per game | 12.0 | 15.1 |
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Bellarmine won the one regular-season game between these teams by seven points.
- Bellarmine went 16-11-1 against the spread in the regular season.
- Jacksonville is 12-17 against the spread going into Wednesday afternoon.
Jacksonville vs Bellarmine Model Projection
Score Projection: Jacksonville 75 – Bellarmine 73 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Jacksonville 52%, Bellarmine 48% ATS PRO
Final Thoughts
This ASUN Tournament opener feels destined to be a close contest between two teams that have battled to similar results in their conference slates. Jacksonville’s rebounding and defensive play earn it a slight edge in the closing minutes in my opinion, but Bellarmine’s offense and shooting can keep the game tight. Expect a competitive game that could come down to execution in the final minutes, with Jacksonville closing out Bellarmine down the stretch.
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