The second round of the NCAA Tournament continues on Sunday as Iowa faces Florida in Tampa. Iowa advanced with a hard-fought 67-61 win over Clemson, leaning on rebounding and defensive effort to control the game. Florida delivered one of the most dominant performances of the opening round, crushing Prairie View A&M by 59 points in a display of depth and efficiency. With a trip to the Sweet 16 on the line, continue reading to get my Iowa vs Florida prediction.
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Iowa Hawkeyes vs Florida Gators
- Date & Time: Sunday, March 22, 2026, 7:10 PM ET
- Venue: Amalie Arena, Tampa, Florida
- Broadcast: TBS
Key Storylines
- Iowa’s rebounding edge was decisive in its first-round win, finishing +13 on the glass.
- Florida enters off a historic 114-55 blowout, showcasing elite scoring depth against an inferior opponent.
- The tempo clash is going to be important, with Iowa preferring a slower pace and Florida thriving in transition.
- Bennett Stirtz had a big game in the NCAA Tournament again, after he helped Drake pull a first-round upset last year. Stirtz’s performance will be a major storyline from an individual standpoint.
Key Players
Florida Key Players
- Reuben Chinyelu: A dominant interior presence averaging a double-double in recent play, including 14 points and 13 rebounds in the first round. His ability to control the paint sets the tone for Florida.
- Boogie Fland: A highly efficient scorer who posted 16 points on perfect shooting in the opener. His guard play adds balance to Florida’s attack.
- Thomas Haugh: A versatile playmaker who recorded 14 points and 7 assists, giving Florida a reliable facilitator.
Iowa Key Players
- Bennett Stirtz: Led Iowa with 16 points in the opening round and is a key perimeter scorer.
- Kael Combs: Added 15 points, including a clutch late basket, showing his ability to perform in tight moments.
- Cam Manyawu: Manyawu is the leading rebounder for Iowa and the Hawkeyes will need him and everyone else to pitch in to rebound against the size of Florida.
Stat Comparison
| Stat | Iowa | Florida |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 75.0 | 87.6 |
| Points allowed per game | 65.8 | 71.5 |
| Team Field Goal % | 49% | 48% |
| Rebounds per game | 29.7 | 45.7 |
| Assists per game | 15.0 | 17.0 |
Betting Trends
- Iowa is 19-15 against the spread this season.
- Florida enters this game with an 18-16 record against the spread.
- The over is 19-15 in Iowa’s games this year.
- The under is 19-14-1 in games involving the Gators.
Iowa vs Florida Pick & Model Projection
- Score Projection: Iowa 68 – Florida 80 ATS PRO
- Pick: Florida -10.5 ATS PRO
- Confidence: 4 out of 5 ATS PRO
- Win Probability: Iowa 28%, Florida 72% ATS PRO
Florida enters this game with a clear edge in talent, depth, and offensive efficiency. The way the Gators dismantled their first-round opponent highlighted just how dangerous they are when their transition game gets going. Their ability to generate easy looks inside while also hitting perimeter shots makes them difficult to slow down for a full 40 minutes. And with Florida having such a huge rebounding advantage, I’ll lay the points with the Gators in this one.
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