The winners of the last three NCAA Tournaments will face off on Tuesday night when the Florida Gators and UConn Huskies do battle at Madison Square Garden in the Jimmy V Classic. Both teams are ranked going into this contest, but UConn is the favorite as they get set to take on the defending national champions. Before this contest tips off from MSG, you will find my analysis and my Florida vs UConn prediction below.
Our Florida vs UConn Pick
Pick: UConn Huskies -4.5
Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Florida Gators vs UConn Huskies
- Date & Time: Tuesday, December 9, 2025, 9:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
- Broadcast: ESPN
Key Storylines
- The Huskies have surged to 8‑1 in non‑conference play, entering this game on a four‑game win streak after a dominant 83‑59 victory over East Texas A&M. Their defense continues to stand out, allowing just 60.4 points per game and holding opponents to 37.4% shooting. They will have their hands full against the bigs of Florida on the defensive end of the floor.
- The Gators average 83.4 points per game and have shown they can score in bunches. Their frontcourt is still imposing. Forwards such as Thomas Haugh (18.6 PPG) and Alex Condon (15.1 PPG, 9.0 RPG), along with center Rueben Chinyelu (10.3 PPG, 11.2 RPG), give Florida an edge on the boards and in the paint. That size could challenge UConn’s interior defense, though the guard play of Florida is still a bit of a question mark.
- UConn’s senior center, Tarris Reed Jr., has been sidelined with an ankle injury and hasn't played in some recent games. But Reed is a game-time decision for this contest after practicing for the last couple of days. Freshman Eric Reibe has stepped up in his absence, scoring 13 points with six boards and three blocks in the last game. But Reed’s availability would make a significant difference for the Huskies’ rebounding and rim protection against the frontcourt of Florida.
- These two programs have combined to win the last three national championships. They meet again after Florida eliminated UConn in last March’s NCAA Tournament in the second round. UConn will likely be motivated for payback, and the neutral‑site setting at Madison Square Garden adds a big‑game atmosphere that could favor the Huskies given their geographic proximity to New York City.
Betting Trends
- UConn is 3-6 against the spread going into this game.
- Florida is 2-6 against the spread so far this season.
- The under has hit in 6 of the Huskies' first 9 games.
- The Gators have stayed under the total 6 times in their first 8 outings.
Florida vs UConn Model Projection
Score Projection: UConn 78 – Florida 71
Win Probability: UConn 66%, Florida 34%
Final Thoughts
I like the idea of backing UConn as a favorite in this game, especially if Reed is able to make his return to the floor. Florida's guard play just hasn't been the same as it was a season ago and that should continue to cost the Gators against elite competition. I'll lay the points with the Huskies in what should feel like a home game for them at MSG.
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