Updated March 4, 2026
The Missouri Valley Conference tournament tips off on Thursday, with Drake facing Southern Illinois in a meeting between two teams that split their regular-season series. Southern Illinois enters the game with a 16-15 record and improved form late in the year, while Drake arrives at 12-19 and is struggling through a lengthy losing streak. Before this contest begins to start off Arch Madness, you can continue reading to get my Drake vs Southern Illinois prediction in the betting markets.
Pick: Southern Illinois -5.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 3 out of 5
This game features two teams heading in very different directions. Drake limps into the tournament after dropping nine straight games, including a 75-53 defeat against Northern Iowa in its latest outing. Offensive consistency has been a problem during that stretch, as the Bulldogs have frequently struggled to generate efficient scoring.
Southern Illinois, on the other hand, has closed the regular season in far better form. The Salukis have won four of their last five games, including an 81-67 victory against Evansville. That stretch has helped them regain confidence entering tournament play and positioned them as a clear favorite against a Drake team that has struggled late in the season.
The season series has been competitive. Southern Illinois claimed a 66-61 win in the most recent meeting in February, while Drake captured an earlier matchup 76-73 in overtime. That history suggests this matchup could again remain tight deep into the second half.
Southern Illinois Salukis
Drake Bulldogs
Stat | Drake | Southern Illinois |
|---|---|---|
Points per game | 75.3 | 73.3 |
Points allowed per game | 75.2 | 69.6 |
Team Field Goal % | 44% | 45% |
Rebounds Per Game | 35.8 | 37.9 |
Assists Per Game | 13.3 | 13.6 |
Score Projection: Drake 67 – Southern Illinois 73 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Drake 29%, Southern Illinois 71% ATS PRO
This matchup features two programs moving in opposite directions entering the conference tournament. Drake has struggled badly during the final stretch of the season, losing nine consecutive games while failing to cover spreads and produce consistent offense. Southern Illinois arrives with far stronger recent form and a defense capable of limiting scoring opportunities. Considering the Salukis’ improved play, defensive edge, and Drake’s recent slump, I am going to lay the points with the Salukis.
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