The Atlantic 10 Tournament title will be on the line Sunday when Dayton and VCU meet at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh. Both teams have battled through a demanding bracket to reach this stage, and the stakes could not be higher with an automatic NCAA Tournament bid awaiting the winner. Dayton arrives after a dramatic semifinal victory over top seeded Saint Louis, while VCU has leaned on its high powered offense and depth to get to this point. Here, I break down this matchup and you can find my Dayton vs VCU prediction below.
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Dayton Flyers vs VCU Rams
- Date & Time: Sunday, March 15, 1 p.m. ET
- Venue: PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
- Broadcast: CBS
Key Storylines
Dayton enters the championship game after a dramatic semifinal win over Saint Louis, securing a 70-69 victory with a putback basket in the final second. The Flyers have now reached 23 wins on the season and have shown an ability to grind out close contests. Their defensive discipline and ability to create timely offense have been key factors in their tournament run.
VCU comes into the game with one of the most productive offenses in the Atlantic 10. The Rams average roughly 82.1 points per game and have built a double-digit scoring margin during the season by combining that scoring with aggressive defense. Their ability to push the pace and generate turnovers often leads to quick scoring runs.
Key Players
VCU Rams
- Terrence Hill Jr. leads the Rams in scoring and serves as a primary creator. He averages about 14 points per game while contributing assists and perimeter shooting.
- Lazar Djokovic provides interior production with around 13.8 points and 5.5 rebounds per game. His ability to score in the paint and protect the rim adds balance to the Rams’ lineup.
- Jadrian Tracey offers perimeter spacing and averages nearly 2 made three pointers per game during recent stretches, helping open the floor for the offense.
Dayton Flyers
- Javon Bennett is the primary scoring option for Dayton, averaging roughly 16 points per game and providing playmaking with more than 3 assists per contest.
- Amael L’Etang contributes inside scoring and rebounding and recently delivered the game-winning basket in the semifinal round.
- Jordan Derkack supplies additional scoring on the wing and has shown an ability to hit clutch shots late in games.
Stat Comparison
| Stat | Dayton | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 74.9 | 82.1 |
| Points allowed per game | 69.9 | 71.8 |
| Team Field Goal % | 45% | 46% |
| Rebounds Per Game | 32.7 | 36.7 |
| Assists Per Game | 14.3 | 14.1 |
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- VCU went 2-0 against Dayton during the regular season.
- VCU is 15-17 against the spread entering this matchup.
- Dayton holds a 16-17 record against the spread heading into the A10 title game.
Dayton vs VCU Pick & Model Projection
- Score Projection: Dayton 70 – VCU 76 ATS PRO
- Pick: VCU -3.5 ATS PRO
- Confidence: 3 out of 5 ATS PRO
- Win Probability: Dayton 42%, VCU 58% ATS PRO
Dayton has shown impressive composure in close games and arrives with confidence after a last-second semifinal win. The Flyers’ defense can slow opponents and keep games within reach deep into the second half. Still, VCU holds advantages in scoring depth and rebounding. The Rams consistently generate extra possessions through offensive boards and turnovers, and their offense produces nearly five more points per game than Dayton. When these teams met earlier this season, VCU held the upper hand and should throughout this one as well. I’ll lay the points with the Rams in the A10 title game.
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