Updated November 13, 2025
The California Golden Bears and the Kansas State Wildcats will meet in the Little Apple on Thursday night in college basketball. With Cal entering 3-0 and Kansas State at 2-0, this game in Manhattan will be an important early test for both of these power-conference teams. Here, I have broken down this ACC vs Big 12 matchup. Below is my Cal vs Kansas State prediction for tonight.
California has started 3-0, including a recent 93-65 win over Cal State Fullerton. They are allowing 64.0 points per game early on while averaging 85.7 points per game. The Golden Bears are shooting 45.6% from the field and just 28.4% from three in early games. Their shooting needs to be better in this game, as they hit the road for the first time this season to take on their first power-conference opponent of the year.
Kansas State is 2-0 to begin the season and has hit the ground running offensively. They’ve averaged 95.5 points per game, shot 55.8% from the field, and 56% from beyond the arc in their early games. Their defensive numbers have been solid as well, with the Wildcats allowing 67.5 points per game. The Wildcats benefit from a strong home-court advantage and will attempt to do so here. But they have also not played a team from a power conference yet this season and will have to adjust to a step up in level of competition in this game.
Score Projection: California 74 – Kansas State 81
Win Probability: California 26%, Kansas State 74%
I am very interested to see how both of these teams perform in this non-conference matchup on Thursday night. Both of these teams could do a lot for their early tournament resumes by picking up a win here. I think the team that will accomplish that will be Kansas State. The Octagon of Doom is one of the toughest places to play in college basketball. And while Cal has done a nice job of taking care of business against lower-level opponents at home, I think they will struggle here against their toughest competition of the young season.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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