Updated March 10, 2026
Conference tournament games often create quick rematches, and that is exactly the case when Arizona State meets Iowa State on Wednesday afternoon. Arizona State enters this contest after an emotional 83-79 win over Baylor in the opening round of the Big 12 Tournament. That victory pushed the Sun Devils to 17-15 and gave them a chance to continue their postseason run. Iowa State has been one of the stronger teams in the conference throughout the season and arrives with a top ten national ranking, looking to win a second Arizona State vs Iowa State matchup in the span of one week.
Pick: Arizona State +11.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 3 out of 5
Arizona State arrives with confidence after its tournament-opening win over Baylor. The Sun Devils shot over 57% from the field in that game and received contributions across the roster. That type of offensive performance is necessary because Iowa State tends to control games with defense and disciplined offense.
The Cyclones finished the regular season as one of the strongest teams in the Big 12 and remain highly ranked entering postseason play. Their offense is efficient, and their defense regularly limits opponents to difficult shots. Iowa State has also been consistent throughout the season, averaging more than 80 points per game while allowing opponents well below that mark.
The challenge for Arizona State is depth and consistency. The Sun Devils have shown they can upset high-level teams, including a recent victory against Kansas earlier this month. However, sustaining that level against a complete Iowa State lineup will require nearly perfect execution, especially when playing for the second straight day.
Iowa State Cyclones
Arizona State Sun Devils
Stat | Arizona State | Iowa State |
|---|---|---|
Points per game | 77.2 | 81.8 |
Points allowed per game | 77.9 | 65.7 |
Team Field Goal % | 45% | 49% |
Rebounds Per Game | 33.3 | 35.5 |
Assists Per Game | 14.0 | 17.4 |
Score Projection: Arizona State 73 – Iowa State 82 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Arizona State 25%, Iowa State 75% ATS PRO
My projections have Iowa State winning this game pretty comfortably in the second round of the Big Ten tournament. But I'm going to take the points with Arizona State, as they come in confident after their first round win, and should keep this game within 9-10 points or so to tip off the day's college basketball action from Kansas City.
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