Atlanta Falcons vs Indianapolis Colts Prediction - 11/9/2025
Updated November 5, 2025
Updated November 5, 2025
The Atlanta Falcons and Indianapolis Colts will meet in Week 10 of the NFL season on Sunday morning in the United States. The reason this game is taking place on Sunday morning in the US is that this game is being played in Berlin. This international matchup features the leading passer in the NFL, who is looking to help his team avoid a second straight loss. Before kickoff from Germany, continue reading for my Falcons vs Colts prediction.
The Colts are off to a 7-2 start and appear to be emerging as a legitimate title contender. The Colts did stumble last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers, though, with turnovers playing a huge role. Quarterback Daniel Jones threw three interceptions and was sacked five times in that defeat. The Falcons have lost three straight and they will try to recover from last week's loss to the New England Patriots. A missed extra-point ended up being the difference in that one-point loss.
Atlanta comes into this game at 3-5 on the season. They are in third place in the NFC South standings, trailing the first-place Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the surprising Carolina Panthers. Atlanta needs wins in a hurry to avoid falling out of Wild Card contention in the NFC.
The Falcons’ defense will try to shut down the potent offense of the Colts in this game. The Falcons rank number one in the NFL against the pass with 158.1 yards per game allowed. They are fourth overall in yards allowed (282.5 per game). Their pass rush has improved and that could give the Colts' offense problems. Atlanta’s run defense has been less consistent, surrendering 124.4 rushing yards per game. That could mean running lanes for star running back Jonathan Taylor of the Colts.
Daniel Jones has shown flashes of brilliance with the Colts. He has a league-high 2,404 passing yards along with 14 touchdowns and six interceptions. Jones looked like the quarterback we saw struggle with the New York Giants last week. A bounce-back performance from Jones would be huge for Indianapolis in Germany.
Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. has thrown for 1,630 yards, eight touchdowns, and three interceptions. He completed 22 of 37 pass attempts for 221 yards and three touchdowns in his most recent game. It will be interesting to see how he performs in an international game against one of the best teams in the NFL.
Score Projection: Colts 27 – Falcons 17
Win Probability: Colts 71%, Falcons 29%
The Colts should be able to bounce back from their loss to the Steelers in their last game. Look for Jonathan Taylor to find room to run on a consistent basis and for Penix to struggle in his first career international start. I'll lay the points with Indy in Berlin.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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