Rafael Nadal is no stranger to being in the late stages of Grand Slam tournaments, and Matteo Berrettini is getting more familiar with them as well. Here, they face one another for the right to play in the 2022 Australian Open final, in what should be a spectacular match on Rod Laver Arena. In our tennis predictions for the semifinal round, we look at Berrettini vs Nadal and reveal our best bet for this epic matchup.
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Matteo Berrettini vs Rafael Nadal
Why Bet On The Berrettini vs Nadal Over:
✅ Both players took two-set leads in the quarterfinal round, with Nadal going up 2-0 on Denis Shapovalov and Berrettini going up 2-0 on Gael Monfils. But both players had to play grueling five-set matches after dropping sets three and four, before rescuing themselves in the fifth. In this match, expect both players to take at least a set and for this match to potentially go five as well.
✅ While Nadal is always favored at this stage of the tournament, the serve of Berrettini should ensure that he snags at least a set off of the Spaniard here. Berrettini’s serve has been the best weapon among any player at this tournament, and he should be able to grind out enough holds to combine with one of the all-time greats to hit at least 40 service games.
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✅ This is a match where the player with more big match experience is not physically where he needs to be, and the player in a better physical condition lacks the experience of triumph in these big moments. Nadal has struggled to get through five-set matches over the last year or so, while Berrettini could end up relinquishing any lead he takes under the pressure of the moment.
Matteo Berrettini
Matteo Berrettini has played a lot of tennis to get to the Australian Open semifinal, dropping sets in all but one match to get to the semifinal round. His last match was a five-set epic against Gael Monfils, where Berrettini won the first two sets before dropping the next two and winning in the fifth. Against Rafael Nadal, Berrettini will not be able to afford such lapses if he wants to make a second career major final.
For Berrettini, the ultimate decider for how this match goes will be his first serve, as he is going to need to generate free points to avoid being beaten in baseline rallies by Nadal. Fortunately, the first serve of Berrettini has been incredible throughout this tournament. The question is whether so much time on court will catch up with him here.
Rafael Nadal
Rafael Nadal won his first two sets against Denis Shapovalov in the Australian Open quarterfinals. And though he also dropped the third and fourth sets of the match, Nadal managed to finish the job in the fifth. Now, Nadal will look to get back to the Australian Open final with a win over a player in Berrettini who has reached a major final more recently than Nadal has.
For Nadal, the questions in this match are twofold. First, can he break down the Berrettini backhand enough to take away the forehand that has been such a difference maker in this tournament? And second, does Nadal have enough gas left in the tank to pull out another victory if he is dragged into a fourth or fifth set by the Italian?