Super Bowl LV Winner
Super Bowl 55 Odds and Futures Preview
As the year of uncertainty continues, we hold out hope that the NFL will get a chance to play its full schedule this season. A lot of player movement gave us something to follow while the NBA and NHL went dark because of the coronavirus outbreak. Now that most of the dust has settled and the NFL Draft is complete, it is a great time to examine the futures odds market at DraftKings Sportsbook.
As a general rule, the Super Bowl teams from the previous season and the playoff teams that had a premature exit are the ones that occupy the top of the futures board. Sometimes you have an outlier team that lost a bunch of personnel or had a quarterback retire or something and the markets have to account for that.
Rarely do you see what we saw in the spring. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who were nowhere near being a playoff team last season, find themselves among the five shortest prices to win Super Bowl LV, which, ironically, will be played at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida.
It turns out that acquiring Tom Brady is good for business. The Buccaneers have seen their season win total odds explode upwards and most of their futures prices get smaller and smaller with TB12 in the fold. Everything seemed to be coming up Buccaneers with Tristan Wirfs’s fall to 13th, where the Bucs traded up with the 49ers to grab a player some thought was the best lineman in the Draft.
Beyond the Bucs, the reigning champion Kansas City Chiefs and NFC Champion San Francisco 49ers are also in the top five. So, too, are Lamar Jackson’s Baltimore Ravens, who ran into the hottest team in the NFL in the Divisional Round and came up short against the Tennessee Titans. The New Orleans Saints round out the five favorites.
There are some teams in the +2000 to +3500 range that are very interesting. Remember that we will have a new playoff format in 2020, assuming that change stays in place if the season schedule is altered. Seven teams from each conference will make the playoffs and only the top team in each conference gets a bye in the Wild Card Round. That opens the door for another Wild Card team.
That would open the door for a team like the Cleveland Browns. Nobody expects the Browns to win the AFC North. In fact, they are the third choice for the AFC North at DraftKings. However, another playoff spot has opened up with the expansion of the postseason. That means that we could very well see two Wild Card teams from the AFC North. The AFC East might only have one playoff team. The AFC South and the AFC West are on par with the AFC North, so six of the seven playoff teams are likely to come from those divisions.
Why not the revamped Browns and their new-look offense? Why not the Tennessee Titans, who were a different team once Ryan Tannehill took over? Why not the Denver Broncos, who added some weapons to put around Drew Lock?
In the NFC, things are a little bit top-heavy, given that teams like the Washington Redskins, New York Giants, Carolina Panthers, and Detroit Lions are all in various stages of a rebuild.
The price on the Dallas Cowboys isn’t great, nor is the price on the Philadelphia Eagles, but you are guaranteed to have at least one playoff team with those two teams. The Giants and Redskins are not winning the NFC East. Frankly, it would be a surprise with the extra playoff team if either the Cowboys or Eagles missed the postseason.
The goal of any futures bet is not necessarily to pick the ultimate winner. That would be a bonus and a cherry on top, but the goal is to get a team into the playoffs that you can use to guarantee a profit. If you have a +2500 futures ticket on a team, you can start hedging because of the NFL playoff format. Your goal is to get to the dance and have a shot.
Teams like the Chiefs, Ravens, and 49ers all have short prices because they are heavy favorites to win their divisions. If you can pick out the Wild Card teams or the division hopefuls with longer odds, like the Minnesota Vikings, that is how you can make some serious money in the NFL futures market.