Barcelona bounced back from a shocking home loss to Granada with a narrow victory over Valencia on the road and now has an opportunity to take Atletico Madrid out of the top spot with a win on Saturday. Diego Simeone’s side, on the other hand, must not lose this game if they want to stay the most serious title contender. This LaLiga Round 35 duel will take place at Camp Nou on Saturday.
Barcelona is a -125 favorite on William Hill Sportsbook to get three points and leapfrog Atletico Madrid in the standings. Check out the latest news and stats and see the best Barcelona vs. Atletico Madrid betting pick.
Barcelona vs. Atletico Madrid
Three-way: 1: Barcelona -125; X: +260 Draw; 2: Atletico Madrid +359
Spread -0.5: Barcelona -125; Atletico Madrid +108
Total 2.5 Goals: Over -110; Under +104
Both Teams to Score: Yes -122; No +110
This game has the makings of a title decider as Barcelona can leapfrog into first place – at least for one day – if they can end a three-game winless H2H run vs current LaLiga leaders Atlético Madrid. In their favor is an attack that’s scored more league goals (80) than all but one side across Europe’s top-five divisions, averaging 2.35 per game.
However, a 2-1 defeat in their last home match ended a 13-game unbeaten LL run here (W10, D3) and showed there’s chinks in Barça’s armor. They’ve now conceded two goals in consecutive LL home matches (W1, L1), putting them on the brink of conceding 2+ for three in a row for the first time since 1982/83.
Ronald Koeman cannot count on Martin Braithwaite (ankle), Philippe Coutinho (knee), and Anssumane Fati (knee).
- Lionel Messi scored his 50th direct free-kick for Barcelona in the last round and may get another here as he’s scored more goals against Atletico (32) than all teams bar Sevilla
- Barcelona’s average of 6.59 shots on target per LL game stands far above the division’s second-highest average, which is held by Atletico (4.82)
With Atletico scoring 2+ goals in two of the last three H2Hs, there’s the real chance that could happen too, although with their first LL title since 2013/14 within sight, the visitors’ may foster a cagey affair. That’s worked for them in the past, and an average of just 0.65 goals conceded per top-flight match this season is identical to their last title-winning campaign at this stage, so their division-best defense could be the key to becoming Spanish champions for the 11th time.
That title-winning season also saw Atletico register a 1-1 draw at Barcelona in May, a result the visitors may take again considering they’ve won just one of their previous six competitive road trips (W1, D2, L3) after scoring the opener just twice.
Diego Simeone will be without Renan Lodi (muscle), while Jose Gimenez (muscle) is questionable to feature on Saturday.
- The visitors’ hero and sole scorer last time out was Marcos Llorente – Atletico have never lost when he’s scored (W14, D2)
- Atletico won just one of the last six away matches in all competitions
Barcelona won four of the previous ten H2H encounters (D4, L2), but Atletico is undefeated in the last three duels (W2, D1). Los Colchoneros also didn’t lose in the last two visits to Camp Nou (W1, D1), scoring 2+ goals in each. Barca’s defense is quite vulnerable at the moment as they allowed at least a goal in eight of the previous ten matches in all competitions. Six of the last ten H2H duels produced goals on both sides, which was the case in six of the last eight at Camp Nou. I am backing BTSS in this one as well.
The Pick: Both teams to score YES (-122)