Week 15 brings us our first Saturday Night Football action of the season. The Miami Dolphins visit the Buffalo Bills in what could ultimately be the game to decide the AFC East. Oddsmakers are giving the Bills the edge, as they are 7 point favorites with a game total of 44.
ℹ️ The Pick: | Raheem Mostert Over 49.5 Rushing Yards |
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Why Bet The Mostert Over
✅ Raheem Mostert is entering what amounts to be an unfavorable matchup on Saturday night, but that is completely baked into where the total is set. The thing working in Mostert’s favor is the lack of health for backfield mate Jeff Wilson. Wilson will be a game time decision and it is fair to expect the bulk of the touches to go Mostert even if Wilson is active.
Due to health and various other factors, Mostert has seen inconsistent rushing volume on the season. However, in the five games that Mostert has seen at least 14 carries, he has notched at least 49 rushing yards in each. He averages 74.8 rushing yards per game in such games.
✅ The weather could be a factor. If we see a snow blanketed field in Buffalo as we have seen so many times before, both teams will likely have to turn to the run far more than they otherwise would. This expectation seems to have caught the eye of the oddsmakers, considering the total of the game. 44 is a lower figure than we would otherwise expect in a matchup between these two teams.
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Buffalo Bills
The Bills are currently in a tie with the Chiefs atop the AFC at 10-3. They lead the Dolphins by two games in the AFC East, and a win on Saturday night would all but settle the division. This game will determine just how stress free the remainder of the season will be in terms of the division. A loss would mean the Dolphins are just a game back and the Bills remaining schedule is no cake walk. A loss would also move them behind the Chiefs for the coveted playoff bye week and home field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Miami Dolphins
While the Dolphins trail the Bills in the division by two games, they currently hold the second Wild Card playoff slot in the AFC, with no teams tied. They sit a game ahead of the Patriots, Jets and Chargers. A win would put them in a commanding spot in terms of Wild Card chances, and also give them realistic hope in the division. A loss would end their divisional chances and put them in a pool of teams that will likely come down to tie breaker scenarios for a Wild Card slot.