NFL Draft Prop Picks
It is the best draft time of year once again! That of course is the NFL draft. No other sport comes close to offering the same product that the NFL does on draft day. In fairness, no other major team sport offers the overall product the NFL does in general.
The 2022 NFL Draft is, always, a three day affair. Day one and the first round takes place Thursday April 28th and is televised on ESPN in prime time. Day two, on April 29th, consists of the second and third rounds and is once again a prime time affair on ESPN. The last of which, day three, on April 30th, is rounds four through seven, with the difference being it takes place during the day.
The NFL Draft offers more wagering options than any other league’s draft. Sportsbooks also bring the best promo offers for betting on the NFL draft. The first posting of this piece comes a full month prior to the draft, and will be updated throughout the process. The simple fact that we have no shortage of prop offerings a full month in advance speaks volumes on the wagering popularity of the draft.
NFL Draft Promo Codes
For now, and in the early stages of the process, sportsbooks are yet to put out their NFL Draft promo offerings. There will surely be fun offerings to take advantage of closer to the draft itself. For now, you can get yourself started with an $1100 risk free bet from Caesar’s sportsbook. Just follow the link and take advantage of the huge risk free bet.
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NFL Draft Order
The NFL Draft order is determined by the reverse order of finish from the previous season. The Super Bowl champion’s pick comes last in each round with each playoff team coming before them in reverse order of elimination. Non playoff teams pick at the start of each round. The league’s worst team from the previous season picks first. Each team is then slotted in after by reverse order of finish.
You can find the full 2022 draft order here.
NFL Draft Prop Picks
4/27/22 Update
This update comes just a day and a half away from draft time. We are unlikely to gain any new information before the Jaguars go on the clock. This will be the final installment of our always successful draft props.
This update will have much to do with wide receivers. There are going to be a plethora of wide outs taken in the first two rounds of the draft. Wide receivers in play for first round draft capital invested include:
- Garrett Wilson
- Jameson Williams
- Drake London
- Treylon Burks
- Chris Olave
- Jahan Dotson
- Skyy Moore
- Christian Watson
- George Pickens
Of this group, the top three are locks to be first round picks. We already got strong value for Wilson under pick 10.5 in the first draft prop iteration. The focus on this update however will be the players at the bottom of the list.
There is more than a realistic chance seven or even eight of these wide outs go in Round 1 on Thursday night.
I tend to give NFL personnel and front offices credit for being able to identify talent and ceiling. For as much as fan bases complain, they are generally quite good with their prospect evaluation. Of the bottom four players live for the first round on Thursday, I believe two are better picks and better bets than the others.
First let’s touch on the two players we are not playing unders on. Those are Jahan Dotson (pick 30.5) and George Pickens (pick 36.5). Dotson is athletic and he does not have limitations in his route tree. Where he will find challenges in the NFL is from the physicality of NFL defensive backs. I also see a player that has a higher floor than ceiling in the NFL. He does have the look of a solid contributor but not a star type player. Pickens is a bit different than Dotson as he has a higher ceiling than floor in the NFL. If he can add bulk to his skinny frame, it will be quite a boon for him. That will help him on his lack of physicality. He is another player that will be bullied by NFL defensive backs.
WR Over/Unders
Skyy Moore – Under pick 35.5
The under on Skyy Moore is my favorite prop heading into day one of the draft. Moore is a MAC product with average size and good athleticism. He is well ahead of the curve as a route runner and has good (and huge) hands. Where he differentiates himself from the likes of Pickens and Dotson is with his physicality. He is not a player that will be bullied.
There are rumors that multiple teams have Moore in the top 20 of their draft boards. Even slipping past that range, there is a huge amount of buffer for this under to come in easily. The Chiefs have been connected to Moore and they are in a prime, if not value spot grab him. The Chiefs have the 29th and 30th selections.
No matter who takes him, Moore will be a quality contributor for many years with star potential.
Betting Pick: Moore under pick 35.5
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Christian Watson – Under Pick 39.5
Watson is an exciting prospect that leaves more to projection that his draft range counterparts. He is a tall and long playmaker with blazing speed, whose measurables and Senior Bowl have catapulted him up draft boards. Running a 4.36 forty at 6’4″ and 208 was a major boon for him in terms of expected draft capital.
Watson did not play in the FBS, so there is more projection required on him than most. His straight line speed and acceleration however are not in question. His routes are adequate to above average at the moment, and I believe that is an area that he will be able to improve upon. He is also more physical than Dotson and Pickens. There is a true ceiling without major development needed and I think a team will have no problem investing top 40 capital in the potential star.
Betting Pick: Watson Under Pick 39.5
4/21/22 Update
This update comes with a week to go before the draft. We have some new entries to the process. There will be one more update before the draft so be sure to check back.
Unfortunately this update is limited in terms of new betting picks. Hopefully you jumped on the first iteration’s picks immediately.
-Garrett Wilson has become the favorite to be the top WR selected and Drake London has tumbled in terms of projection.
-Breece Hall being the first RB selected is off the board and is completely a foregone conclusion.
First QB Selected
As recently as a few weeks ago, Malik Willis was discussed as a foregone conclusion to be the first quarterback selected. Now that the draft is upon us, that seems less and less likely. Willis is still the betting favorite at -150, but Kenny Pickett is rightfully closing that gap. Pickett currently sits at +150 and he seems highly in play for the Panthers at sixth overall.
Betting Pick: Pickett +150
3/31/22 Picks. Again, these will be updated throughout the process.
This first iteration of this piece will be a bit more limited on quantity of betting picks. That is not to mean these picks are not valuable. This early in the process we are simply taking the glaring values and getting in on them before the lines have much of a chance to move. Let’s get into them straight away.
All betting lines are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Specific Pick Wagers
With only the top four spots having offerings here, we are limited on the bets we can make. That said, we do have one glaring value, and the time is now to pull the trigger before the line goes up.
Number 1 Overall – Aiden Hutchinson -250
There are very few things we can view as close to certain at this point in the process, but Michigan’s Aiden Hutchinson being the best player in the class is one of them. He is a franchise altering edge rusher that will be the life blood of a defense for a decade. Literally all signs point to him going first. Frankly, if the top pick is made and it is not Hutchinson, it would be a large mistake for whoever makes that pick.
Number 2 Overall – Travon Walker +250
While it is less locked in than Hutchinson going in the top spot, it is quite probable we see two ends/edge go in the first two picks. Walker is a Georgia product with elite athleticism and a knack for stopping the run. Where he does not stack up with Hutchinson is as a pass rusher. Make no mistake, Walker is no slouch in that department, he, like everyone else leaves something to be desired when compared to Hutchinson. Walker is the most likely pick at 2 and getting the +250 return is a solid return for the most likely outcome.
Draft Position Props
With less than a dozen offerings at this time, there is not a great deal to choose from. We do however have a pair of wide receivers that should have space between them, yet come with the same over/under line. Those wide receivers are Garrett Wilson and Drake London. I believe Wilson to be the superior prospect.
Garrett Wilson Under Pick 10.5
Garrett Wilson should be discussed with Treylon Burks to be the first receiver drafted in this class. That has not been the case of late and it is puzzling. If NFL teams are a bit lower on Burks, it means Wilson should and likely will be viewed as the cream of the crop. He checks all boxes for a wide receiving prospect. I liken his game to the elite Diontae Johnson. He is masterful at creating separation.
Drake London Over Pick 10.5
London will be a first round pick. Let’s get that part clear. With that being said, I don’t believe this era of the NFL is right for his game. He is a tall and very lean target that excels at contested catches. Part of the reason he needs to make those contested catches is he does not separate at a nearly elite level. We have seen the NFL evolve into favoring elite separators over elite bullies. Bully is used as a complimentary term here. That said, London should not be viewed as a number one option for whichever team drafts him. Instead he should be viewed as a strong second option. Using a top ten pick on that is far from ideal.
Positional Props
There will be much more of these in the updates. There is one to attack at this moment, as something of a certainty.
First RB drafted – Breece Hall -250
There is only one running back in the first round conversation of this draft. That back is Breece Hall, and I strongly suspect the rumors of the Bills taking him in the first round are true. Much like Najee Harris to the Steelers a year ago, the match makes perfect sense. The player brings a fully complete and NFL ready skill set. He should be the first back off the board, and by a comfortable margin. Hall himself is a very high end prospect, but also faces little competition to be the first player selected at his position. The closest thing to competition is Kenny Walker, who I would guess goes a half a round later than Hall.
Be sure to check back for updates to this page over the next month.