The New England Patriots and Houston Texans have been fixtures in the playoffs in the past, but both teams have fallen on hard times so far this season. With both teams struggling mightily on the offensive side of the ball, the team that can find a little bit of a spark on offense could separate themselves in a big way. In our NFL betting predictions for Week 5, we look at the Patriots vs Texans game and discuss where the value lies.
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Patriots vs Texans Betting Pick
This game will be played at NRG Stadium at 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 10, 2021.
Why Bet The Texans:
✅ The Texans’ offensive struggles have been well documented since Davis Mills took over at quarterback. They have scored just nine points in two games since he’s been the quarterback. But this is the Texans’ first home game since Mills took over, and they are likely to outperform the extremely low expectations for them.
✅ On the other side, the New England Patriots haven’t been much better on offense with Mac Jones at quarterback. Jones has completed 70% of his passes so far, but his low yards per attempt and low scoring output has been something that could negatively impact the Patriots’ ability to cover the spread here.
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✅ While there is a serious talent issue in Houston, these are still professional athletes with pride in their work. After a 40-0 beating on the road against the Buffalo Bills, the Texans should come out less limp than they did in their second straight road game against Buffalo last week.
New England Patriots
The New England Patriots came so close to winning an emotional game on Sunday Night Football last week, with a missed field goal at the very end of the game costing them against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. New England’s defense was elite, holding the Tom Brady-led Buccaneers to under 20 points. And while Mac Jones played his best game as a pro, it was not enough.
This week, the Patriots have a golden opportunity to pick up their second win of the season against a Texans team that has been horrible offensively. But the Patriots will need to raise their level on offense too if they are going to avoid a 1-4 start. Even with Jones completing 70% of his passes, the Patriots’ scoring output has been anemic at best, which could cost them against a Texans team looking to bounce back from an embarrassing loss.
Houston Texans
Last week was one of the worst performances in the history of the Houston Texans’ franchise, which says a lot given how the franchise got started in the David Carr era. Houston lost 40-0 on the road against the Buffalo Bills, failing to take advantage of an early Bills turnover and never generating any real scoring chances after that. Barely gaining 100 yards for the game, the Texans were shown that Davis Mills is wholly inadequate to lead an NFL team at quarterback at his time.
This week, the Texans’ defense will come into their first home game of the Davis Mills era knowing what their assignment is. They are going to need to hold the Patriots in check from start to finish to give their team a chance to win the game. But that kind of pressure, combined with the lack of support from the Texans offense, could end up negatively impacting Houston.