The seventh and eighth place teams in the AFC will meet in Week 17 of the regular season. The winner of this game between the New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins will be in a playoff spot going into the final week of the regular season. In our NFL predictions for Week 17, we look at this crucial Dolphins vs Patriots matchup.
Dolphins vs Patriots Betting Pick
ℹ️ The Pick: | Under 42 |
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This game will be played at Gillette Stadium at 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, January 1, 2023.
Why Bet The Under:
✅ Miami is in a bad spot at the quarterback position, as Tua Tagovailoa is in the league’s concussion protocol yet again. If Tagovailoa cannot play, or if he plays at less than 100%, the Dolphins offense will struggle to get up and running.
✅ Meanwhile, New England’s offense has been bad for most of this season. They rank 16th in the league in scoring, and their lack of explosive offense will help this game stay under the total.
✅ The Patriots have gone under the total in nine of their 15 games, for a 60% clip over the course of this season.
NFL
Miami Dolphins
New England Patriots
Team Stats
Passing
Offense/Defense
MIA | Passing | NE |
---|---|---|
393 | CMP | 370 |
566 | ATT | 575 |
69.4 | CMP% | 64.3 |
265.5 | YDS/GM | 208.4 |
8.3 | Y/A | 6.6 |
7.6 | NY/A | 5.8 |
15 | INT | 10 |
31 | SK | 36 |
Defense/Offense
MIA | Passing | NE |
---|---|---|
380 | CMP | 351 |
568 | ATT | 557 |
66.9 | CMP% | 63.0 |
221.2 | YDS/GM | 180.5 |
7.3 | Y/A | 6.1 |
6.0 | NY/A | 5.1 |
15 | INT | 21 |
56 | SK | 48 |
Rushing
Offense/Defense
MIA | Rushing | NE |
---|---|---|
17 | G | 17 |
456 | ATT | 480 |
2308 | YDS | 1584 |
135.8 | Y/G | 93.2 |
5.1 | Y/A | 3.3 |
27 | TD | 14 |
1.6 | TD/G | 0.8 |
Defense/Offense
MIA | Rushing | NE |
---|---|---|
17 | G | 17 |
433 | ATT | 415 |
1650 | YDS | 1627 |
97.1 | Y/G | 95.7 |
3.8 | Y/A | 3.9 |
15 | TD | 9 |
0.9 | TD/G | 0.5 |
Special Teams
Offense/Defense
MIA | Special Teams | NE |
---|---|---|
27 | Punts/Ret | 44 |
265 | Punt/Yds | 439 |
9.8 | Punt/Y/R | 10.0 |
18 | Kick Off/Ret | 21 |
441 | Kick Off/Yds | 433 |
24.5 | Kick Off/Y/rt | 20.6 |
Defense/Offense
MIA | Special Teams | NE |
---|---|---|
17 | Punts/Ret | 33 |
207 | Punt/Yds | 208 |
12.2 | Punt/Y/R | 6.3 |
15 | Kick Off/Ret | 18 |
457 | Kick Off/Yds | 471 |
30.5 | Kick Off/Y/rt | 26.2 |
Scoring
Offense/Defense
MIA | Scoring | NE |
---|---|---|
17 | G | 17 |
27 | RshTD | 14 |
30 | RecTD | 19 |
24 | FGM | 31 |
28 | FGA | 38 |
29.2 | Pts/G | 21.5 |
Defense/Offense
MIA | Scoring | NE |
---|---|---|
17 | G | 17 |
15 | RshTD | 9 |
27 | RecTD | 16 |
18 | FGM | 16 |
21 | FGA | 25 |
23.0 | Pts/G | 13.9 |
Team Advanced Defense
MIA | Defense | NE |
---|---|---|
21.5% | Bltz% | 35.2% |
8.0% | Hrry% | 9.7% |
12.7% | QB Hit% | 5.9% |
27.7% | QB Prss% | 20.7% |
Injuries
Name | Position | Injury | Status | Updated |
---|---|---|---|---|
Adam Shaheen | TE | Knee | Out | 01/01/23 |
Austin Jackson | OL | Ankle | Out | 01/01/23 |
Bradley Chubb | OLB | Ankle/hand | Out | 01/01/23 |
Brandon Jones | S | Knee (acl) | Out | 01/01/23 |
Byron Jones | CB | Achilles | Out | 01/01/23 |
Cethan Carter | TE | Concussion | Out | 01/01/23 |
Emmanuel Ogbah | DE | Tricep | Out | 01/01/23 |
Eric Fisher | OT | Calf | Out | 01/01/23 |
Erik Ezukanma | WR | Gameday Inactive | Out | 01/01/23 |
John Lovett | FB | Knee | Out | 01/01/23 |
Justin Zimmer | DT | Undisclosed | Out | 01/01/23 |
Myles Gaskin | RB | Mcl | Out | 01/01/23 |
Nik Needham | CB | Achilles | Out | 01/01/23 |
Porter Gustin | LB | Undisclosed | Out | 01/01/23 |
Tanner Conner | TE | Gameday Inactive | Out | 01/01/23 |
Terron Armstead | OT | Toe/pectoral/knee | Out | 01/01/23 |
Trey Flowers | LB | Foot | Out | 01/01/23 |
Trill Williams | CB | Knee (acl) | Out | 01/01/23 |
Tua Tagovailoa | QB | Concussion | Out | 01/01/23 |
Xavien Howard | CB | Knee | Out | 01/01/23 |
Brandon Shell | OT | Shoulder | Questionable | 12/30/22 |
Clayton Fejedelem | S | Knee | Questionable | 12/30/22 |
Eric Rowe | S | Quad/knee | Questionable | 12/30/22 |
Jaelan Phillips | LB | Toe | Questionable | 12/30/22 |
Liam Eichenberg | OL | Knee | Questionable | 12/28/22 |
Alec Ingold | FB | Thumb | Probable | 01/01/23 |
Greg Little | OT | Foot | Probable | 01/01/23 |
Kader Kohou | CB | Thumb | Probable | 12/29/22 |
River Cracraft | WR | Calf | Probable | 01/01/23 |
Teddy Bridgewater | QB | Knee | Probable | 12/29/22 |
Name | Position | Injury | Status | Updated |
---|---|---|---|---|
Brian Hoyer | QB | Head | Out | 01/01/23 |
Chasen Hines | OL | Undisclosed | Out | 01/01/23 |
Cody Davis | SS | Knee | Out | 01/01/23 |
DeVante Parker | WR | Concussion | Out | 01/01/23 |
Isaiah Wynn | OL | Foot | Out | 01/01/23 |
Jack Jones | DB | Knee | Out | 01/01/23 |
Jalen Mills | CB | Groin | Out | 01/01/23 |
Joe Cardona | LS | Foot | Out | 01/01/23 |
Joejuan Williams | CB | Shoulder | Out | 01/01/23 |
Jonnu Smith | TE | Concussion | Out | 01/01/23 |
Kevin Harris | RB | Gameday Inactive | Out | 01/01/23 |
Kristian Wilkerson | WR | Concussion | Out | 01/01/23 |
LaBryan Ray | DL | Undisclosed | Out | 01/01/23 |
Marcus Cannon | OL | Concussion | Out | 01/01/23 |
Marcus Jones | DB | Concussion | Out | 01/01/23 |
Quinn Nordin | K | Undisclosed | Out | 01/01/23 |
Ronnie Perkins | LB | Undisclosed | Out | 01/01/23 |
Sam Roberts | DT | Gameday Inactive | Out | 01/01/23 |
Scotty Washington | TE | Undisclosed | Out | 01/01/23 |
Shaun Wade | CB | Gameday Inactive | Out | 01/01/23 |
Ty Montgomery | WR | Ankle | Out | 01/01/23 |
Adrian Phillips | DB | Illness | Questionable | 12/30/22 |
Andrew Stueber | OL | Hamstring | Questionable | 01/01/23 |
Brenden Schooler | DB | Shoulder | Questionable | 12/28/22 |
Damien Harris | RB | Thigh | Questionable | 12/30/22 |
Jake Bailey | P | Back | Questionable | 01/01/23 |
Yodny Cajuste | OL | Illness | Questionable | 12/30/22 |
Hunter Henry | TE | Knee | Probable | 01/01/23 |
Jonathan Jones | DB | Probable | 01/01/23 | |
Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | Ankle | Probable | 01/01/23 |
Tyquan Thornton | WR | Knee | Probable | 01/01/23 |
Betting Trends
MIA | Betting Trends | NE |
---|---|---|
OVERALL | OVERALL | |
0-3-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 1-2-0 |
1-2-0 | ATS W/L/P | 1-2-0 |
22 | Avg Score | 23 |
27 | Avg Opp Score | 21.67 |
AWAY | HOME | |
0-3-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 1-2-0 |
1-2-0 | ATS W/L/P | 1-2-0 |
21 | Avg Score | 12.67 |
29.33 | Avg Opp Score | 16.33 |
MIA | Betting Trends | NE |
---|---|---|
OVERALL | OVERALL | |
1-4-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 1-4-0 |
2-3-0 | ATS W/L/P | 1-4-0 |
22.6 | Avg Score | 21 |
25.8 | Avg Opp Score | 24.4 |
AWAY | HOME | |
2-3-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 2-3-0 |
2-3-0 | ATS W/L/P | 2-3-0 |
25.8 | Avg Score | 15.6 |
29.4 | Avg Opp Score | 17 |
MIA | Betting Trends | NE |
---|---|---|
OVERALL | OVERALL | |
5-5-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 5-5-0 |
4-6-0 | ATS W/L/P | 5-5-0 |
25 | Avg Score | 21.5 |
23.9 | Avg Opp Score | 19.3 |
AWAY | HOME | |
4-6-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 5-5-0 |
4-6-0 | ATS W/L/P | 5-5-0 |
22.6 | Avg Score | 24 |
28.9 | Avg Opp Score | 17.8 |
Head to Head
Teams Last 10
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Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins suffered a significant loss last week, falling to the Green Bay Packers on Christmas Day. Miami had a 10-point lead in that game, but things seemed to go downhill for them after Tua Tagovailoa seemed to suffer a concussion after hitting his head on the turf. Tagovailoa is in the concussion protocol before this game and his status is questionable.
If Tagovailoa cannot play, the Dolphins could be in huge trouble. They are ahead of the Patriots by just one game in the AFC Wild Card race, and a loss here could drop the Dolphins out of the playoff spots going into Week 18. His status will be worth monitoring before placing any bets on this game.
New England Patriots
The New England Patriots lost in a heartbreaker last week to the Cincinnati Bengals. Cincinnati took a 22-0 lead in that game, before the Patriots scored 18 straight points. But the Patriots fumbled in Bengals territory deep into the fourth quarter, losing by four points when they were in scoring range late in the game.
This week, the Patriots defense has to put pressure on whoever the quarterback is for Miami. If it is Tagovailoa, pressuring him after yet another head injury will only give the Patriots a huge advantage. Meanwhile, pressuring quarterbacks that have played less than Tagovailoa will create a steep learning cure for those signal callers.
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