The 4-5 Atlanta Falcons visit the 2-7 Carolina Panthers to kick off Week 10 of the NFL season on Thursday Night Football. Week 10 means this is the first week of the season officially beginning on the second half side. This NFC South matchup does not move the needle much in terms of expectation for either team, but it does not mean we will not get some fun out of it. These teams met just two weeks ago, and it was shockingly one of the most fun games so far this season. The 37-34 Falcons win was made possible by place kicking hilarity from the Panthers. Adding to the hilarity is that result put the Falcons in first place of an NFL division, at least for a week.
The Falcons are set as 2.5 point road favorites. This is probably the correct line but both of these teams are on a complete road to nowhere in 2022. The difference between them is the Panthers packed in their season with their trade of Christian McCaffrey and accepted this season’s fate. The Falcons on the other hand are still ostriches with their heads in the sand thinking they have real competitive chances.
Neither of these offenses are anything to behold, but the respective matchup for each is a good one. Only two NFC teams have allowed more points than both these teams this season. These teams have already put on a 71 point show, so the total set at 42 seems a bit low. That is fully considering the low level quarterback play on each side.
Kyle Pitts Player Prop
While it is never safe to fully trust a Marcus Mariota pass catcher, Kyle Pitts enters a great spot and matchup on TNF. We know Mariota has had some difficulty keeping the best tight end prospect in history as involved as he should be. That said, the first matchup with the Panthers this season was not one of those times. Pitts saw a season high 9 targets and produced with that volume. He put up a 5/80/1 receiving line in that game. That accompanied the 5/87/0 line he posted in the other game this season in which he saw 8 targets. Pitts ability is never the problem, it is the quarterback and coaching staff scheming the production out of their elite tight end.
The matchup with Carolina is not an eye poppingly good one from a gross production perspective. However it is one that tight ends have found an amazing amount of efficiency against, at least in recent weeks. Hayden Hurst caught all five of his targets for 35 yards a week ago. We covered what Pitts did two weeks ago. Rookie Cade Otton posted 4/64/0 on five targets three weeks ago. The week before that Tyler Higbee was injured early in the game., but there was plenty more success in the two weeks leading into that. George Kittle and Zach Ertz turned a combined 12 targets to 11 catches for 94 yards and a score. Any tight end with any amount of ability and opportunity has beaten this matchup, and none more effectively than Pitts.
We are going to have multiple wagers on Pitts overs on Thursday night. These will include over 3.5 on his receptions prop, over 37.5 on his receiving yardage prop and as an any time touchdown scorer returning +245.
Kyle Pitts Betting Picks:
Over 3.5 receptions, 37.5 receiving yard and any time touchdown scorer +245.