The Miami Dolphins will host the Green Bay Packers on Sunday, kicking off the NFL Christmas Day slate. Miami is attempting to move one step closer to the postseason, while the Packers are trying to keep their hopes alive as well. In our NFL picks for Week 16, we make our pick for this Packers vs Dolphins contest on Christmas.
Packers vs Dolphins Betting Pick
ℹ️ The Pick: | Dolphins -3.5 |
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This game will be played at Hard Rock Stadium at 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, December 25, 2022.
Why Bet the Dolphins:
✅ Dolphins offense has really proven itself as an elite unit this year. They put up a ton of points last week against the Buffalo Bills in the cold weather, and they will continue to perform well at home under more normal conditions.
✅ Miami has one of the best home records in the NFL, going 5-1 at home on the year. Green Bay, meanwhile, is just 2-5 on the road on the year.
✅ The Packers are tied for the eighth worst record against the spread in the NFL this year. They are 6-8 against the spread and they should continue to struggle to beat the expectations of sportsbooks against an elite Dolphins team.
NFL
Green Bay Packers
Miami Dolphins
Team Stats
Passing
Offense/Defense
GB | Passing | MIA |
---|---|---|
374 | CMP | 380 |
581 | ATT | 568 |
64.4 | CMP% | 66.9 |
233.4 | YDS/GM | 221.2 |
7.2 | Y/A | 7.3 |
6.5 | NY/A | 6.0 |
11 | INT | 15 |
30 | SK | 56 |
Defense/Offense
GB | Passing | MIA |
---|---|---|
342 | CMP | 393 |
523 | ATT | 566 |
65.4 | CMP% | 69.4 |
206.8 | YDS/GM | 265.5 |
7.3 | Y/A | 8.3 |
6.2 | NY/A | 7.6 |
7 | INT | 15 |
45 | SK | 31 |
Rushing
Offense/Defense
GB | Rushing | MIA |
---|---|---|
17 | G | 17 |
441 | ATT | 433 |
1905 | YDS | 1650 |
112.1 | Y/G | 97.1 |
4.3 | Y/A | 3.8 |
10 | TD | 15 |
0.6 | TD/G | 0.9 |
Defense/Offense
GB | Rushing | MIA |
---|---|---|
17 | G | 17 |
493 | ATT | 456 |
2181 | YDS | 2308 |
128.3 | Y/G | 135.8 |
4.4 | Y/A | 5.1 |
15 | TD | 27 |
0.9 | TD/G | 1.6 |
Special Teams
Offense/Defense
GB | Special Teams | MIA |
---|---|---|
26 | Punts/Ret | 17 |
189 | Punt/Yds | 207 |
7.3 | Punt/Y/R | 12.2 |
31 | Kick Off/Ret | 15 |
783 | Kick Off/Yds | 457 |
25.3 | Kick Off/Y/rt | 30.5 |
Defense/Offense
GB | Special Teams | MIA |
---|---|---|
23 | Punts/Ret | 27 |
270 | Punt/Yds | 265 |
11.7 | Punt/Y/R | 9.8 |
40 | Kick Off/Ret | 18 |
950 | Kick Off/Yds | 441 |
23.8 | Kick Off/Y/rt | 24.5 |
Scoring
Offense/Defense
GB | Scoring | MIA |
---|---|---|
17 | G | 17 |
10 | RshTD | 15 |
32 | RecTD | 27 |
27 | FGM | 18 |
33 | FGA | 21 |
22.5 | Pts/G | 23.0 |
Defense/Offense
GB | Scoring | MIA |
---|---|---|
17 | G | 17 |
15 | RshTD | 27 |
21 | RecTD | 30 |
31 | FGM | 24 |
38 | FGA | 28 |
20.6 | Pts/G | 29.2 |
Team Advanced Defense
GB | Defense | MIA |
---|---|---|
29.3% | Bltz% | 21.5% |
8.5% | Hrry% | 8.0% |
9.9% | QB Hit% | 12.7% |
24.3% | QB Prss% | 27.7% |
Injuries
Name | Position | Injury | Status | Updated |
---|---|---|---|---|
Caleb Jones | OT | Gameday Inactive | Out | 12/25/22 |
David Bakhtiari | OT | Knee | Out | 12/25/22 |
Eric Stokes | CB | Ankle/knee | Out | 12/25/22 |
Jake Hanson | OL | Bicep | Out | 12/25/22 |
Jonathan Ford | DL | Gameday Inactive | Out | 12/25/22 |
Jonathan Garvin | LB | Gameday Inactive | Out | 12/25/22 |
Rashan Gary | LB | Knee (acl) | Out | 12/25/22 |
Sean Rhyan | OL | Suspended | Out | 12/25/22 |
Shemar Jean-Charles | CB | Gameday Inactive | Out | 12/25/22 |
Tipa Galeai | LB | Hamstring | Out | 12/25/22 |
Aaron Jones | RB | Knee | Questionable | 12/23/22 |
Elgton Jenkins | OL | Knee | Questionable | 12/23/22 |
Keisean Nixon | CB | Groin | Questionable | 12/23/22 |
Rudy Ford | S | Wrist | Questionable | 12/23/22 |
Aaron Rodgers | QB | Right Thumb | Probable | 12/22/22 |
AJ Dillon | RB | Head | Probable | 12/22/22 |
Krys Barnes | LB | Hand | Probable | 12/22/22 |
Name | Position | Injury | Status | Updated |
---|---|---|---|---|
Adam Shaheen | TE | Knee | Out | 12/25/22 |
Austin Jackson | OL | Ankle | Out | 12/25/22 |
Brandon Jones | S | Knee (acl) | Out | 12/25/22 |
Byron Jones | CB | Achilles | Out | 12/25/22 |
Cethan Carter | TE | Concussion | Out | 12/25/22 |
Emmanuel Ogbah | DE | Tricep | Out | 12/25/22 |
Eric Fisher | OT | Calf | Out | 12/25/22 |
Erik Ezukanma | WR | Gameday Inactive | Out | 12/25/22 |
John Lovett | FB | Knee | Out | 12/25/22 |
Myles Gaskin | RB | Illness | Out | 12/25/22 |
Nik Needham | CB | Achilles | Out | 12/25/22 |
Noah Igbinoghene | CB | Gameday Inactive | Out | 12/25/22 |
Porter Gustin | LB | Undisclosed | Out | 12/25/22 |
River Cracraft | WR | Calf | Out | 12/25/22 |
Skylar Thompson | QB | Gameday Inactive | Out | 12/25/22 |
Tanner Conner | TE | Gameday Inactive | Out | 12/25/22 |
Trey Flowers | LB | Foot | Out | 12/25/22 |
Trill Williams | CB | Knee (acl) | Out | 12/25/22 |
Duke Riley | LB | Ribs | Questionable | 12/23/22 |
Durham Smythe | TE | Quad | Questionable | 12/23/22 |
Jerome Baker | LB | Ankle | Questionable | 12/21/22 |
Jevon Holland | S | Neck | Questionable | 12/23/22 |
Keion Crossen | DB | Knee | Questionable | 12/23/22 |
Liam Eichenberg | OL | Knee | Questionable | 12/25/22 |
Bradley Chubb | OLB | Knee | Probable | 12/25/22 |
Elijah Campbell | DB | Concussion | Probable | 12/22/22 |
Eric Rowe | S | Hamstring | Probable | 12/25/22 |
Jaelan Phillips | LB | Toe | Probable | 12/25/22 |
Jeff Wilson Jr. | RB | Hip | Probable | 12/25/22 |
Kader Kohou | CB | Thumb | Probable | 12/22/22 |
Teddy Bridgewater | QB | Knee | Probable | 12/22/22 |
Terron Armstead | OT | Toe/pectoral/knee | Probable | 12/25/22 |
Betting Trends
GB | Betting Trends | MIA |
---|---|---|
OVERALL | OVERALL | |
2-1-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 0-3-0 |
2-1-0 | ATS W/L/P | 1-2-0 |
28.33 | Avg Score | 21 |
23.67 | Avg Opp Score | 29.33 |
AWAY | HOME | |
1-2-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 3-0-0 |
1-2-0 | ATS W/L/P | 2-1-0 |
23.33 | Avg Score | 28.33 |
24.67 | Avg Opp Score | 14 |
GB | Betting Trends | MIA |
---|---|---|
OVERALL | OVERALL | |
3-2-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 2-3-0 |
3-2-0 | ATS W/L/P | 3-2-0 |
26.6 | Avg Score | 26.4 |
25.2 | Avg Opp Score | 24 |
AWAY | HOME | |
1-4-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 4-1-0 |
2-3-0 | ATS W/L/P | 3-2-0 |
21.6 | Avg Score | 24.4 |
24.8 | Avg Opp Score | 17 |
GB | Betting Trends | MIA |
---|---|---|
OVERALL | OVERALL | |
3-7-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 5-5-0 |
4-6-0 | ATS W/L/P | 4-6-0 |
21.2 | Avg Score | 24.7 |
24.5 | Avg Opp Score | 25.3 |
AWAY | HOME | |
3-7-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 9-1-0 |
3-7-0 | ATS W/L/P | 7-3-0 |
22.1 | Avg Score | 25.9 |
26 | Avg Opp Score | 15.9 |
Head to Head
Teams Last 10
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Green Bay Packers
The Green Bay Packers got the better of the Los Angeles Rams last week on Monday Night Football. That moved them to 6-8 on the season, and technically kept them in the race for one of the NFC Wild Card spots. They still need to win their three remaining games and get some help to make the tournament, but all they can do for now is stay alive.
This week, the Packers need their defense and running game to help them get the better of the Dolphins. Against a team with an offense as potent as that of Miami’s, the Packers’ top priority has to be keeping the ball away from Tua Tagovailoa and company. If they can do that, they could keep themselves in the playoff hunt for yet another week.
Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins did not beat the Buffalo Bills last week, but they did come very close to beating them on the road. Miami’s chances of winning the AFC East are now in doubt, but they still have a great shot at making the playoffs as a Wild Card team. This week, the Dolphins are back home, out of the cold, and should have the inside track to winning this contest.
For the Dolphins, the key to this game is going to be getting after the quarterback. If they can put pressure on Aaron Rodgers, the Dolphins could cruise to a win that would all but secure them a spot in the playoffs.
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