We are already on to Week 11 for this NFL season, with the first game being the Tennessee Titans visiting the Green Bay Packers on Thursday night. This interconference matchup is a interesting one, as the team with the superior record is not favored. The 4-6 Packers are set as a 3.5 point home favorites at Caesars sportsbook over the 6-3 AFC South leading Titans. This betting line is not overly surprising, despite records. The Titans have a negative scoring differential despite being three game over .500.
The Titans have had the more anemic of two offenses that have had issues in this matchup. Only four teams in the league have scored fewer points on the season. They have preyed on a soft schedule in an easy division to record the record they have to this point.
The Packers offense was out of sync, but they just might have found the missing piece to improve their fortunes last week. They could not get out of their own way in forcing a large role to rookie Romeo Doubs in the first half of the season. With Doubs out last week, fellow NFL rookie Christian Watson was given a chance to shine, and that’s precisely what he did.
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Christian Watson Player Prop
The early portion of Christian Watson’s rookie season was lost to limited playing time and a couple of minor injuries. The coaching staff felt compelled to put Romeo Doubs in a major role early in the season, and he failed to deliver despite a significant role. Doubs turned 50 targets to just 31 catches for 314 yards and 3 touchdowns. It was always puzzling that the staff seemed hell bent on playing and featuring the fourth rounder Doubs ahead of the second rounder in Watson. By comparison, Watson has done so much more on significantly fewer opportunities. He has seen only 22 targets on the season, but turned those to 14 catches for 195 yards and 3 touchdowns.
With Doubs out injured last week, the coaching staff was forced to get out of their own way. Watson saw an elevated role and returned a rapport with Aaron Rodgers and an explosive play element that had been completely missing. Watson turned his 8 targets to 4 catches for 107 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Cowboys high end defense. With Doubs out again this week, we will see more of the same, and in a better matchup.
The Titans defense is the epitome of a pass funnel. They are second in the league in rushing yards allowed per game. Conversely they are second worst in the league in passing yards allowed per game. Watson is going to have some very real opportunities to produce once again.
The Watson receiving yardage prop is set at 44.5 yards. This is puzzling as his receptions prop is set at 4.5, and he averages just under 14 yards per catch. If he comes anywhere near the receptions prop, he will cruise over the yardage prop. There is a very strong chance he hits the yardage over on just one catch. We will certainly attack the yardage over, but there is another prop to take as well. With Watson in the alpha receiving role against a very soft matchup, he is the best bet on the Packers to score a touchdown. Despite that fact, we get a +210 return on Watson as an anytime touchdown scorer.
Betting Picks: Christian Watson Over 44.5 receiving yards and to score a touchdown +210