The Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins will do battle in AFC East competition on Sunday afternoon in South Florida. The Bills passed a huge test last week by beating the defending AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs. They will try to avoid a letdown on the road against a struggling division rival in Week 10. Continue scrolling to find a full breakdown of this matchup and to get my Bills vs Dolphins prediction for this weekend’s action.
Our Bills vs Dolphins Pick
- Pick: Dolphins +9.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins
- Date & Time: Sunday, November 9, 2025, 1:00 PM ET
- Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
- Broadcast: CBS
Key Storylines
The Bills enter this divisional matchup in strong form. They have won two games in a row over the Carolina Panthers and Kansas City Chiefs. Their offense is efficient, averaging 6.1 yards per play and their defense held up well against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs last week. The question here is whether the Bills can stay locked in after getting a huge win for their confidence a week ago.
Miami has had a nightmare of a 2025 season. They are 2-7 and are coming off a blowout loss to the Baltimore Ravens at home last week. One positive for the Dolphins going into this week is that their Week 9 loss to Baltimore came on Thursday Night Football. That means a few extra days to rest and prepare for this contest. But that might not be enough to offset the talent gap between these two teams.
This game features a pair of explosive running backs who will try to tilt the game in their team’s favor. James Cook has 867 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns. He will try to gash a Dolphins defense that has struggled against the run. De’Von Achane is a more versatile back and will try to hurt the Bills both on the ground and by catching passes.
Quarterback Play
Buffalo’s Josh Allen has followed up last year’s MVP season with another strong year. He has 1,833 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, and four interceptions. He is also featured in designed runs often for Buffalo and will be a handful for the Dolphins’ defense again here.
Tua Tagovailoa clearly has talent but lacks consistency for the Dolphins. He has 1,779 passing yards and 15 touchdowns this season. But his 11 interceptions are tied with Las Vegas’ Geno Smith for the most in the NFL this season. Avoiding turnovers is a must if the Dolphins want a chance in this game.
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Bills defeated the Dolphins 31-21 in Orchard Park earlier this season.
- Miami is 4-5 against the spread so far this season.
- Buffalo is 4-4 against the spread on the year.
- Miami has gone over the total in six of its first nine games.
- Buffalo is 4-4 on their over/unders going into Sunday’s game.
Bills vs Dolphins Model Projection
Score Projection: Buffalo Bills 27 – Miami Dolphins 20
Win Probability: Buffalo Bills 70%, Miami Dolphins 30%
Final Thoughts
I certainly don’t think that the Dolphins are going to upset the Bills this week. But I do think that the Dolphins can keep this game inside of single-digits on the scoreboard. The Dolphins have a rest advantage and are at home here. I think that will help them to cover the number, though the Bills should win in the end.
