I’ve got good news! We have a live NFL game tonight! The NFL returns for the 2022 season with the Los Angeles Rams hosting the Buffalo Bills. We will have you covered for player props on all of the prime time games this season, starting with this Thursday Night kickoff.
The Bills are set as a 2.5 point favorite in LA. This is a signal that we can expect the Bills to be favored in every game this season in which their key players are available.
You might ask, “what does the betting line have to do with player props?” That can be answered simply or more in depth, but the simple answer is that game script matters. Teams will have different approaches if playing from ahead or playing from behind. Player snaps and usage are often dictated by game flow.
This particular game is likely not a blowout on either side, so we cannot project a truly fully run heavy game script for a leading team or a fully pass happy game script for a losing team. We will go more in depth on game scripts as the year progresses and betting plays are created from those projections. For now, let’s dive into our first player prop of the year.
Josh Allen Player Prop Bet
Bills quarterback Josh Allen is a dream in terms of producing statistics. Whether passing or running, Allen is great for lighting up the box score. His passing props in this game are set pretty accurately, but the same can not be said for Allen’s rushing prop. His rushing yards total is set at 35.5 yards, and that is frankly silly in comparison to his usage and production last season.
Let’s start by looking at the 2021 season as a whole. Allen racked up 897 on 139 carries. That was good for 6.5 yards per carry and an average of 8.7 carries per game and 56 yards per game. Needless to say that is not remotely in line with a rushing yards total of 35.5 in the matchup with the Rams.
Looking at the rushing yards prop and what Allen needed to hit the over, there is a trend. Allen had at least five carries in 11 games last season. He had at least 35 rushing yards in 10 of those games. If we take that a step further and look at tonight’s rushing attempts prop, Allen is set at an over/under of 6.5. Essentially the oddsmakers have made a mistake here, as they believe the carries will be there for Allen, but inexplicably not the yardage. Take the over 35.5 on Josh Allen rushing yards.