Noventi Open Best Bets – June 23rd

The finals of the 2019 Noventi Open are set after a pretty straight forward semifinal Saturday. The first semifinal of the day saw David Goffin (+129) stop the hot Matteo Berrettini in straight sets. Goffin was able to overcome a mini break in the first set tiebreak, and then broke Berrettini once in the second set, to send the Italian packing. The second semifinal of the day saw #1 Roger Federer (-1250) win nice and easy, 6-3 6-3, over Pierre-Hugues Herbert. This was a much needed quick match for Federer as he had two back-to-back three set matches.

The final of the Noventi Open will feature nine time champion, and the #1 seed, Roger Federer (-714) taking on the resurgent David Goffin (+450).

Below is my pick for the final of the 2019 Noventi Open.

Roger Federer (-714) vs David Goffin (+450)

Roger Federer is through to his 155th career ATP final after a convincing semifinal win over Pierre-Hugues Herbert. Federer lost just five total points on his serve and broke Herbert three times during his one hour and four minute victory. Federer now enters his 13th career Halle final and will look to lift his 10th career trophy at the tournament. The Swiss lost in the final here last year as he fell to Borna Coric in three sets. Sunday will be the fourth final of 2019 for Federer as he currently holds a 2-1 record in finals this season.

David Goffin is through to his 12th career final after another solid performance in Halle. The Belgian put a stop to Matteo Berrettini’s long grass win streak and will look to lift his first career grass tournament trophy. Goffin has not been in a final since November 2017 and has not won a final since lifting the Japan Open trophy in October 2017. Goffin’s only previous grass final saw him lose in straight sets to Nicolas Mahut in the 2015 Rotterdam final. Goffin can get back in the top 20 with a win Sunday.

I like Roger Federer to lift his 10th career Noventi Open trophy.

Roger Federer holds a commanding 7-1 advantage in this matchup and leads 1-0 on grass. The two last met on grass back in 2016, in this same tournament, when Federer came away with the straight set win in the quarterfinals.

YTD Tennis Results: 264-174

Noventi Open Results: 9-3

Noventi Open Best Bets – June 22nd  

The final four is set in Halle after an eventful quarterfinal Friday. Matteo Berrettini (-152) started off the day taking out #3 Karen Khachanov 6-2 7-6(4) and David Goffin (+137) followed that match up with a 3-6 6-1 7-6(3) win over #2 Alex Zverev. The nightcap was one heck of a match as #1 Roger Federer (-625) outlasted #7 Roberto Bautista Agut (+400), in three tough sets, 6-3 4-6 6-4. The fourth semifinalist is Pierre-Hugues Herbert who received a retirement from #4 Borna Coric after Herbert won the first set 7-5.

Semifinal Saturday will feature #1 Roger Federer (-1250) vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert (+700) and Matteo Berrettini (-189) vs David Goffin (+150).

Below are my picks for Saturday’s semifinals in Halle.

Matteo Berrettini (-189) vs David Goffin (+150)

Matteo Berrettini, for the second consecutive week, took care of #3 Karen Khachanov in straight sets. The Italian has now won eight straight matches to start the grass season and will enter the top 20 for the first time in his career. So far this week Berrettini has lost just one set, spent four hours and 28 minutes on the court and faced an average opponent ranking of 32. Saturday will be the Italian’s fifth ATP semifinal of 2019.

David Goffin is through to the semifinals after fantastic three set comeback Friday. Goffin lost the first set 6-3, to #2 Alex Zverev, but fought back to win the second set 6-1 and then fought back from a break down to win the third set 7-6(3). Goffin has lost two sets this week, spent five hours and five minutes on court and faced an average opponent ranking of 23. Saturday will be the third semifinal of 2019 for Goffin.

I like David Goffin to stop the in-form Italian and get the win Saturday.

This will be the first meeting between the two.

Roger Federer (-1250) vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert (+700)

Roger Federer was forced to fight for the second day in a row, but the world #3, and nine time Halle champion, was able to overcome #7 Roberto Bautista Agut 6-3 4-6 6-4. Federer has hardly looked his best this week, but facing tough opponents like Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Bautista Agut will be good for Fed come Wimbledon. Federer has lost two sets, spent five hours and 33 minutes on court and faced an average opponent with a ranking of 51. Saturday will be the fifth semifinal of the season for Federer.

Pierre-Hugues Herbert received a retirement from #4 Borna Coric, who was suffering from a back injury, to advance to the semifinals in Halle. The Frenchman is in the best singles form of his career and he is one win away from achieving a new career high ranking of #31. The Frenchman has lost one set, spent four hours and 36 minutes on court and faced an average opponent ranking of 51 this week. Saturday will be the third semifinal of the season for Herbert.

Fed gets to his customary final in Halle.

This will be the first meeting between the two.

YTD Tennis Results: 260-170

Noventi Open Results: 7-3

Noventi Open Best Bets – June 20th

The first four quarterfinalists are set, at the Noventi Open, after four three set second round matches on Wednesday. David Goffin (-500) came back after losing the first set to knock off Radu Albot 4-6 6-4 6-3 and #3 Karen Khachanov (-111) took out Jan-Lennard Struff 6-3 3-6 6-4. The final two matches of the day saw Pierre-Hugues Herbert (-303) come back from a set down to knock off Sergiy Stakhovsky 2-6 7-6(2) 6-4 and #4 Borna Coric (-455) eliminated Joao Sousa 7-6(4) 5-7 7-6(4).

The final four quarterfinalists will be determined Thursday with matches featuring Matteo Berrettini (-455) vs Andreas Seppi (+300), #7 Roberto Bautista Agut (-175) vs Richard Gasquet (+125), #2 Alex Zverev (-189) vs Steve Johnson and #1 Roger Federer (-625) vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (+400).

Below are my two best bets for Thursday in Halle.

Alex Zverev (-189) vs Steve Johnson (+137)

Alex Zverev notched his first grass win of the season with a 6-4 7-5 win over Robin Haase on Monday. Suffering a shock defeat to world #153 Dustin Brown, last week in Stuttgart, Zverev needs to string some wins together this week if he has any hope of progressing far at Wimbledon. Zverev fell in the first round here last season.

Steve Johnson recorded just his third win since early March with an efficient 6-3 6-3 win over Philipp Kohlschreiber on Monday. The American did not face a single break point, fired 13 aces and 0 double faults, and broke the German three times en route to victory. Johnson fell in the first round here last season.

Alex Zverev evens up the H2H record with a win Thursday.

Steve Johnson leads the H2H 1-0, but this will be the first meeting on grass. That lone meeting took place on the Miami hardcourts, in 2016, when Steve Johnson came away with a 7-6(9) 7-6(3) win.

Roberto Bautista Agut (-175) vs Richard Gasquet (+125)

Roberto Bautista Agut began his grass season with a nice 7-6(10) 6-0 win over would #42 Taylor Fritz on Tuesday. The Spaniard did not face a break point all match, lost just four first serves and broke Fritz three times during his one hour and 25 minute win. Bautista Agut still needs two more wins this week to defend the semifinal points he earned here last season.

Richard Gasquet has seemed to work off the rust, post injury, as he has now won four out of his last five matches after a 6-3 6-4 win over Peter Gojowczyk on Tuesday. Gasquet started his grass season last week, in Hertogenbosch, and made a run to the semifinals before losing to Jordan Thompson in straight sets. Gasquet has already progressed further this season after falling in the first round here in 2018.

I like Roberto Bautista Agut to get the win Thursday.

Roberto Bautista Agut leads the H2H 2-1, but this will be the first meeting on grass. The two last met on the Tokyo hardcourts back in 2015 when Bautista Agut came away with a 6-4 6-1 win.

YTD Tennis Results: 252-161

Noventi Open Results: 5-1

Noventi Open Best Bets – June 19th

Tuesday at the Noventi Open featured the final 10 first round matches and boy was it a dud of a day. Of the 10 matches all 10 betting favorites came away with wins and nine of the 10 matches were concluded in straight sets. Some notable results were #1 Roger Federer (-1250) knocking out John Millman 7-6(1) 6-3, Matteo Berrettini (-400) knocking out #6 Nikoloz Basilashvili in straight sets, #4 Borna Coric (-556) taking out Jaume Munar in straight sets and Jan-Lennard Struff (-625) beating Laslo Djere 6-4 6-4.

Wednesday has the first four second round matches on the schedule and those four matches are: David Goffin (-500) vs Radu Albot (+333), #3 Karen Khachanov (-139) vs Jan-Lennard Struff (+100), Pierre-Hugues Herbert (-278) vs Sergiy Stakhovsky (+200) and #4 Borna Coric (-455) vs Joao Sousa (+300).

Below are my two best bets for Wednesday in Halle.

Karen Khachanov (-139) vs Jan-Lennard Struff (+100)

Karen Khachanov got his first grass season of the win, in his second grass tournament, with a solid 7-6(5) 6-4 win over lucky loser Miomir Kecmanovic on Monday. Khachanov served well, firing 10 aces and losing just seven first serves, during his one hour and 33 minute win. The Russian #1 started his grass swing last week, in Stuttgart, when he fell in his first match, second round, to eventual champion Matteo Berrettini.

Jan-Lennard Struff stayed hot with a 6-4 6-4 win over world #27 Laslo Djere on Tuesday. Struff lost just three first serves all match and did not lose on his serve en route to his one hour and 10 minute win. Struff entered the Stuttgart grass season last week and made a run to the final before eventually falling to Matteo Berrettini.

I like Karen Khachanov to cool down the streaking Struff.

This will be the first meeting between the two.

Pierre-Hugues Herbert (-278) vs Sergiy Stakhovsky (+200)

Pierre-Hugues Herbert started his week in Halle with an impressive 7-6(6) 6-4 win over #5 Gael Monfils on Monday. Herbert lost just 12 first serve points and was able to break Monfils two times en route to a one hour and 42 minute win. The Frenchman started his grass season last week with a second round defeat to David Goffin, in Hertogenbosch, and will look to go one step further this week with a favorable second round matchup.

Sergiy Stakhovsky notched his first ATP main draw win since late February with a two hour 21 minute, three set, win over wild card Rudolf Molleker Monday. The Ukrainian fought off one match point in the second set tiebreak before cruising to a 6-2 third set. Stakhovsky has a career 51-37 record on grass and has championship points to defend this week after lifting the Ilkley Challenger title during this week last season.

Pierre-Hugues Herbert comes away with the win.

Pierre-Hugues Herbert leads the H2H 2-0, but this will be the first meeting on grass. The two have not met since 2015 when Herbert came away with two straight set victories on the hardcourts.

YTD Tennis Results: 246-160

Noventi Open Results: 3-1

 

Noventi Open Best Bets – June 18th

Six main draw matches got the week in Halle up and running and four of the six matches ended with betting upsets. Radu Albot (+110) took out Matthew Ebden in three sets, Steve Johnson (+125) beat Philipp Kohlschreiber in straight sets, Joao Sousa (+110) took care of Huey Hurkacz in straight sets and Pierre-Hugues Herbert (+162) took out #5 Gael Monfils in two sets. #2 Alex Zverev (-625) and #3 Karen Khachanov (-400) took care of business in straight sets.

The final 10 first round matches are on the schedule Tuesday as #1 Roger Federer, #4 Borna Coric, #6 Nikoloz Basilashvili, #7 Roberto Bautista Agut, #8 Guido Pella, David Goffin and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga all in action.

Below are my two best bets for Tuesday in Halle.

Roberto Bautista Agut (-200) vs Taylor Fritz (+150)

Roberto Bautista Agut begins his grass season after a 7-6 clay swing that ended with a third round exit at the French Open. The Spaniard has been a steady presence on the grass over the years and has won one career ATP title on the surface (2014 Hertogenbosch). Bautista Agut has went 3-1 last season on grass, has a career 29-14 record on the surface, and is defending semifinal points from Halle last season.

Taylor Fritz began his grass season last week in Hertogenbosch with so-so results. Fritz open the tournament with a straight set win over world #272, Jurji Rodionov, but fell in the second round to Borna Coric in three sets. Fritz went 3-5 last season on grass and has a career 11-16 record on the surface. The American fell in the qualifying stages here last season.

I like Roberto Bautista Agut to get the win on Tuesday.

Roberto Bautista Agut leads the H2H 3-1, but this will be the first meeting on grass. The two met twice already this season, both on clay, with each man coming away with a victory.

Andreas Seppi (-250) vs Mats Moraing (+175)

Andreas Seppi, who had a disastrous 0-7 clay season, began his grass swing last week in Hertogenbosch with one win and one loss. Seppi opened the week with a straight set win over Thomas Fabbiano, but fell in straight sets to Alex De Minaur in the second round. Forced to qualify this week, the Italian knocked out Brayden Schnur and Mischa Zverev to get into the main draw. Seppi, the 2011 Eastbourne champion, went 3-4 on grass last season and has a career record of 61-44 on the surface. The Italian fell in the quarters here last season.

Mats Moraing qualifiers for his first ever main draw match after making his way through Andrey Rublev and Denis Kudla earlier this week. The 26-year-old has played just 11 professional grass matches and has been able to win just four of those matches.

I like Andreas Seppi to get the win Tuesday.

This will be the first meeting between the two.

YTD Tennis Results: 243-158

Noventi Open Results: 1-1

32 men head to Halle looking to lift the season’s sixth ATP 500 trophy of the season. There have been five different champions in the previous five ATP 500 events, but there is a good chance there is a repeat winner this week, whether it be in Halle or in London. Last season Borna Coric was the surprising winner after making his way through Alexander Zverev, Nikoloz Basilashvili, Andreas Seppi, Roberto Bautista Agut and Roger Federer.

Six main draw matches get the action going in Halle on Monday with #2 Alex Zverev, #3 Karen Khachanov and #5 Gael Monfils all in action.

Below is my pick to the lift the 2019 Mercedes Cup trophy.

Matthew Ebden (-152) vs Radu Albot (+110)

Matthew Ebden’s poor 2019 continued in his opening grass tournament of the season, last week in Hertogenbosch, when he fell in the first round to Pierre-Hugues Herbert. Ebden is now 5-14 in 2019 and has not had an ATP win since early February. Ebden has been a solid grass player throughout his career as he has a career 59-32 record and won the 2015 Surbiton Challenger and 2013 Nottingham Challenger events on this surface. Ebden fell in the quarterfinals here last season.

Radu Albot starts his grass season after a 7-6 clay season that ended in the second round of the French Open a few weeks back. Albot has not played many grass matches in his career, as he is just 9-10 during his career, and the Moldovan went just 2-2 last season. Albot did not compete during this week last season.

I like Radu Albot to take advantage of Matthew Ebden’s poor form and pull off the slight upset.

Radu Albot leads the H2H 1-0, but this will be the first meeting on grass. Albot was able to get a win, up 6-0 3-2, when Ebden retired on the Miami hardcourts.

Hubert Hurkacz (-139) vs Joao Sousa (+100)

Hubert Hurkacz suffered a first round exit at the French Open, but rather than starting his grass season the Pole decided to compete in his home country’s clay Challenger event, last week, when he made a run to the semifinals. Hurkacz played his first professional matches on the grass last season when he went 2-2, but the Pole did not compete during this week last season.

Joao Sousa’s terrible 2019 continued on the grass, last week, when the Portuguese #1 fell in the first round of the Libema Open to France Tiafoe. The loss pushed Sousa’s 2019 record to just 10-17, but he did successfully qualify for this week’s tournament, so maybe that is the momentum Sousa needed. Never a very good grass player, Sousa has a career 17-20 record on the surface and has not more than two matches in one season since 2014. Sousa did not compete during this week last season.

I like Hubert Hurkacz to get the win on Monday.

This will be the first meeting between the two.

YTD Tennis Results: 238-155

Noventi Open Results:

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