The second Caucus, and third leg of the Democratic Primary season, takes place on Saturday February 22, 2020 as the Democratic hopeful for the party bid heads to Nevada. Through the Iowa Caucus and the New Hampshire Primary it is Pete Buttigieg who holds a slight 22-21 delegate lead over Bernie Sanders. Elizabeth Warren is in third with eight, Amy Klobuchar sits in fourth with seven and Joe Biden rounds out the top five with just six delegates. Nevada is an important state for the Democratic Party and we could see the likes of Amy Klobuchar and Joe Biden have their campaigns all but finished with a poor result – specifically Joe Biden.
Odds to win Nevada Caucus – odds via William Hill
- Bernie Sanders -700
- Joe Biden +1000
- Pete Buttigieg +1200
- Amy Klobuchar +2000
- Elizabeth Warren +2500
Back in 2016 Hillary Clinton just edged out Bernie Sanders in Nevada by winning 20 of the 35 declared delegates in the state. This year it is Bernie Sanders who is expected to go into Nevada and win the majority of the delegates.
So far this Primary season the results have been somewhat surprising and have really turned the National Polls completely around. In Iowa it was Pete Buttigieg who came away with the most delegate count, 14, but it was Bernie Sanders who had the most votes with 45,831 (26.5%). Other results in Iowa had Elizabeth Warren grab eight delegates, and 34,932 votes (20.2%), Joe Biden earn six delegates and 23,631 votes (13.7%) and Amy Klobuchar earn one delegate and 21,120 votes (12.2%).
In New Hampshire it was just a three person race as Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg both earner nine delegates, but, just like Iowa, Sanders edged Buttigieg in total votes with a 25.6% vs 24.3%. Amy Klobuchar was the only other candidate to receive any delegates as the Senator for Minnesota received six delegates and 19.7% of the votes. Elizabeth Warren (9.2%) and Joe Biden (8.3%) were fourth and fifth in total votes, but did not receive any delegates in the state.
According to the three main poll – 270 to Win, RealClear Politics and FiveThirtyEight – Bernie Sanders is the clear favorite in Nevada, garnering an average aggregation of 29.0%, while Joe Biden is in second with 15.7%, Warren in third with 13.5% and Pete Buttigieg in fourth with 12.2%.
In this all important Caucus I expect Bernie Sanders to take a big step in the Democratic Party Nomination and come away with a sizeable win in Nevada. I expect Biden to finish in second and Warren, after her performance at the debate Wednesday night, to finish in third. Nevada will most likely be the first big hit for Pete Buttigieg during the Primary season. Up next, South Carolina.