Mercedes Cup Best Bets – June 15th

The quarterfinals of the Mercedes Cup took place Friday and it was the four favorites who came through to the semifinals. Matteo Berrettini (-227) made light work of Denis Kudla as the Italian was able to win 6-3 6-3 in straight sets. Jan-Lennard Struff (-125) took out Lucas Pouille 6-4 6-4 and #6 Milos Raonic (-250) beat Marton Fucsovics 6-4 6-4. #7 Felix Auger-Aliassime (-175) won a three set tiebreak fest, over Dustin Brown 7-6(3) 6-7(2) 7-6(2).

The two semifinal matchups are #6 Milos Raonic vs #7 Felix Auger-Aliassime and Jan-Lennard Struff vs Matteo Berrettini.

Here are two best bets for the semifinals in Germany.

Matteo Berrettini (-125) vs Jan-Lennard Struff (+100)

Matteo Berrettini has had little trouble this week and that continued in the quarterfinals as the Italian got by Denis Kudla 6-3 6-3. Berrettini has played three matches this week, has not dropped a set, has spent just three hours and 19 minutes on court and faced an average opponent ranking of 43. This will be Berrettini’s fourth ATP semifinal of the season and he also made a Challenger semifinal appearance.

Jan-Lennard Struff also has had a pretty easy week this far and that continued in the quarters with a 6-4 6-4 win over Lucas Pouille on Friday. The German has spent three hours and 37 minutes on court, in his three matches, and faced an average opponent ranking of 45. Saturday will be Struff’s second semifinal of 2019.

I like Matteo Berrettini to get to the final.

This will be the first meeting between the two.

Milos Raonic (-227) vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (+175)

Milos Raonic is through to the semifinal after a convincing 6-4 6-4 win over Marton Fucsovics on Friday. Raonic, the highest rated seed remaining, has spent five hours and 55 minutes on court and faced an average opponent ranking of 78. Saturday will be Raonic’s second semifinal of 2019.

Felix Auger-Aliassime was facing elimination against Dustin Brown, in the quarterfinals, but broke Brown when he was serving for the match and FAA was able to get the tiebreaker win. FAA has spent five hours and 28 minutes on court and faced an average opponent ranking of 99 so far this week. This will be the Canadian’s fourth semifinal of 2019.

Milos Raonic gets to the final for the second consecutive season.

Milos Raonic leads the H2H 1-0, but this will be the first meeting on grass. The previous meeting took place on the hardcourts at Indian Wells, last season, when Raonic came away with a straight set victory.

YTD Tennis Results: 230-154

Mercedes Cup Results: 3-7

 

Mercedes Cup Best Bets – June 14th

It was a day full of upsets at the Mercedes Cup as there were four matches on the schedule Thursday with three upsets taking place on the day. Denis Kudla (+175) knocked out #5 Gael Monfils 7-5 6-7(3) 7-6(3), Matteo Berrettini (+100) took out #2 Karen Khachanov 6-4 6-2 and Dustin Brown (+250) took out the #1 seed Alex Zverev 6-4 6-7(3) 6-3. The only favorite to win was #7 Felix Auger-Aliassime (-200) who beat Gilles Simon 7-5 6-4.

The quarterfinals will take Friday with #6 Milos Raonic vs Marton Fucsovics, #7 Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Dustin Brown, Matteo Berrettini vs Denis Kudla and Jan-Lennard Struff vs Lucas Pouille on the schedule.

Here are two best bets for the Friday action in Germany.

Matteo Berrettini (-227) vs Denis Kudla (+175)

Matteo Berrettini is through to his fourth quarterfinal of 2019 after a convincing 6-4 6-2 win over Karen Khachanov on Thursday. The Italian has now made a quarterfinal on the hard, clay and grass courts as he continues to improve and turn into an all court threat. Berrettini is 3-0 in quarterfinal matches this season.

Denis Kudla is through to his first quarterfinal of 2019 with a surprising upset of Gael Monfils on Thursday. The win gives Kudla back-to-back ATP main draw wins for the first time since August 2018. Kudla got his grass season started last week and posted a semifinal result at the Surbiton Challenger.

I like Matteo Berrettini to even up the H2H with a win Friday.

Denis Kudla leads the H2H 2-1, but this will be the first meeting on grass. The previous meeting between the two took place on the Munich clay, earlier this season, when Berrettini came away with a 7-5 6-3 win.

Jan-Lennard Struff (-125) vs Lucas Pouille (+100)

Jan-Lennard Struff is through to his third quarterfinal of the season after he cruised to a 6-2 6-2 win over Miomir Kecmanovic on Wednesday. Struff has been playing some good tennis this season as he’s made a quarterfinal appearance on all three surfaces.

Lucas Pouille is through to his second quarterfinal of 2019 after the Frenchman knocked out #3 Daniil Medvedev, in three sets, on Wednesday. Pouille has had a very strange season as he made a surprise run to the semifinals of the Aussie Open, is through to the quarters here and won a Challenger event in Bordeaux, but the Frenchman also has seven first round losses and three second round losses.

I like Lucas Pouille to advance to the semifinals with a win Friday.

Lucas Pouille leads the overall H2H 3-0 and the H2H on grass 2-0. The most recent meeting between the two took place two years ago, on the Halle grass, when Pouille came away with a 1-6 6-3 6-4 win.

YTD Tennis Results: 224-151

Mercedes Cup Results: 2-6

Mercedes Cup Best Bets – June 13th

The second round of the Mercedes Cup kicked off Wednesday and two high seeds saw their tournament end before it really got started. #3 Daniil Medvedev was knocked out in three sets by Lucas Pouille (+162) and #4 Nikoloz Basilashvili fell for the third time this season to Marton Fucsovics (-200) in three sets. Milos Raonic (+110) knocked out Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in three sets and Jan-Lennard Struff (-333) was able to get by Miomir Kecmanovic in straight sets.

The final four second round matches are scheduled for Thursday with #1 Alex Zverev, #2 Karen Khachanov, #5 Gael Monfils and #7 Felix Auger-Aliassime all looking to book their spot in the quarterfinals.

Here are two best bets for the Thursday action in Germany.

Felix Auger-Aliassime (-152) vs Gilles Simon (+110)

Felix Auger-Aliassime registered his first professional win, on the grass, Tuesday with a solid straight set win over the struggling Ernests Gulbis. The Canadian broke Gulbis one time each set and saved the only break point opportunity on his own serve to advance to the second round of the Mercedes Cup.

Gilles Simon drew the always tough Peter Gojowczyk in the first round and it proved to be the tough match everyone would have expected. Simon dropped the first set, but able to fight back and win 4-6 6-2 6-3 to set up the meeting with Auger-Aliassime.

I like Gilles Simon to pull the slight upset Thursday.

This will be the first meeting between the two,

Karen Khachanov (-139) vs Matteo Berrettini

Karen Khachanov opens up his grass season after making a nice run to the quarterfinals of the French Open last week. With the result the Russian entered the top 10 for the first time in his career with not that many points to defend over the grass season. Khachanov has a career 12-6 record on grass.

Matteo Berrettini drew Nick Kyrgios in the first round, on Tuesday, and the unmotivated Australian showed up much to the delight of Berrettini. It took just 54 minutes for the Italian to knock out Kyrgios 6-3 6-4 as Berrettini did not face a single break point and broke Kyrgios two times. Berrettini is now 6-4 on grass in his career.

I like Karen Khachanov to get the win on Thursday.

Matteo Berrettini leads the H2H 1-0, but this will be the first meeting on grass. The only previous meeting took place early this season, on the Sofia hard courts, when Berrettini came away with a three set victory.

YTD Tennis Results: 222-148

Mercedes Cup Results: 2-4

Mercedes Cup Best Bets – June 12th

Thanks to the weather issues on Monday it was a packed schedule Tuesday at the Mercedes Cup. There were three slight upsets as Jan-Lennard Struff (+100), knocked out #8 Denis Shapovalov, Dustin Brown (+100) knocked out John Millman and Matteo Berrettini (+162) took out Nick Kyrgios. #5 Gael Monfils, #6 Milos Raonic and #7 Felix Auger-Aliassime all came away with wins on Tuesday.

Four second round matchups are on the schedule for Wednesday with #6 Milos Raonic vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga being the match of the day. #3 Daniil Medvedev and #4 Nikoloz Basilashvili are also in action Wednesday.

Here are two best bets for the Wednesday action in Germany.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (-139) vs Milos Raonic (+100)

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga started his grass season with a dominant 55 minute win over Mischa Zverev on Monday. Tsonga broke Zverev four times and did not face a break point on his serve the entire match. Tsonga is still trying to find consistency since coming back from injury and a tough second round opponent, who is also coming back from injury, will be a good test for the Frenchman.

Milos Raonic made his return to tour, after a two and a half month injury layoff, with a  6-7(6) 6-4 7-6(4) win over Alexi Popyrin on Tuesday. The Canadian #1 has been fantastic on grass throughout his career as he went 9-2 last season and has a career record of 42-19 on the surface. Raonic fell in the final here last season.

I like Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to advance to the quarters on Wednesday.

Milos Raonic leads the overall H2H 4-2, but Jo-Wilfried Tsonga leads the H2H on grass 1-0. The only meeting on grass took place at the 2012 Olympics when Tsonga came away with a four set win.

Daniil Medvedev (-227) vs Lucas Pouille (+162)

Daniil Medvedev enjoyed a cracking start to the clay season, making the final of Barcelona and the semifinals of Monte Carlo, but he could not capitalize on the momentum as he is currently on a four match losing streak and fell in the first round of the French Open after being up two sets to zero. Medvedev went 4-4 on grass last season and is 20-11 during his career on the surface. Medvedev fell in the second round of the Libema Open during this week last season.

Lucas Pouille had quite an eventful start to his grass season as he needed one hour and 51 minutes to knock out Feliciano Lopez 6-3 3-6 7-6(7) on Tuesday. Pouille has had an interesting season as he made a surprising run to the Australian Open semifinals and won a Challenger clay title in Bordeaux, but has struggled in every other tournament this season. Pouille is now 17-14 on the grass during his career. The Frenchman fell in the semifinals here last season.

Daniil Medvedev gets the win Wednesday.

Lucas Pouille leads the H2H 3-0, but this will be the first meeting on grass. The most previous meeting between the two took place at 2018 Roland-Garros when Pouille came away with a straight set win.

YTD Tennis Results: 218-141

Mercedes Cup Results: 2-2

The rain interrupted the first day of action in Germany as just two main draw matches were able to be completed. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga came away with an easy straight set win over Mischa Zverev and Miomir Kecmanovic came away with a big comeback win over Phillip Kohlschreiber.

With the postponements on Monday there are now 10 scheduled matches on Tuesday with the Canadian trio of #6 Milos Raonic, #7 Felix Auger-Aliassime and #8 Denis Shapovalov all in action. #5 Gael Monfils is also action and there is an interesting match between Matteo Berrettini and Nick Kyrgios.

Here are two best bets for the Tuesday action in Germany.

Felix Auger-Aliassime (-164) vs Ernests Gulbis (+120)

Felix Auger-Aliassime had a disappointing European clay swing, as a whole, but found some solace in his run to the final of Lyon a few weeks back. Unfortunately the Canadian #2 hurt himself in the final and was forced to withdraw from the French Open. FAA now enters his first grass season as a pro, but he did go 2-1 on the surface as a junior.

Ernests Gulbis is having just a horrible last four months as the Latvian has won just one match, out of 13, and won just four sets during that time frame. Gulbis went 6-1 on grass last season and has a career 20-21 record on the surface. Gulbis only action on the grass was at Wimbledon when he won three qualifying matches and made a surprising run to the Round of 16.

I like Felix Auger-Aliassime to start his grass season with a win.

This will be the first meeting between the two.

John Millman (-152) vs Dustin Brown (+110)

John Millman ended his disappointing clay season with a tough five set loss, in the first round, to Alex Zverev at the French Open. Millman went just 4-7 on the dirt and he has not won back-to-back matches since mid-March. Millman fell in the first round here last season en route to a 5-4 grass season record. For his career, Millman has gone 19-18 on the surface.

Dustin Brown enjoyed a successful clay season, on the Challenger circuit, going 9-3 and winning the title at Sophia Antipolis. Brown successfully qualified for the Mercedes Cup this week and will be looking for his first ATP main draw win since the 2-17 US Open first round. Brown went 0-4 on grass in 2018 and has a career 40-29 on the surface. The German fell in the first qualifying stage of the Libema Open during this week last season.

I like John Millman to grab the win on Tuesday.

This will be the first meeting between the two.

YTD Tennis Results: 213-138

Mercedes Cup Results:

 

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