The state with the 14th most delegates is on the line Super Tuesday, March 3, 2020, as eight candidates will look to take a step further to gaining the Democratic Party Presidential Nomination. Massachusetts will award 114 delegates, 91 pledged, in one of the country’s semi-closed primaries. Elizabeth Warren is the senior United States Senator representing Massachusetts, so it could be the final blow to her campaign if she can’t win her own state. Massachusetts is one of 14 contests scheduled for Super Tuesday.
Odds to win Massachusetts Primary – odds via William Hill
- Bernie Sanders -500
- Elizabeth Warren +250
- Joe Biden +2000
- Pete Buttigieg +3300
- Michael Bloomberg +3300
- Amy Klobuchar +10000
The race for the Democratic nomination has really heated up after Joe Biden came away with a 35-15 victory in South Carolina over the weekend. It was exactly what the Biden campaign needed, and the Sanders campaign did not, as we head into Super Tuesday.
According to polling on February 28, 2020, Bernie Sanders is the favorite to win Massachusetts with an average polling aggregation of 23.3%. Elizabeth Warren follows in second at 18.9%, Pete Buttigieg at 14.0% and Joe Biden and Michael Bloomberg who are both at 11.8%. The three polls used for this polling aggregation were 270 to Win, RealClear Politics and FiveThirtyEight.
Back in 2016 it was Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders who finished in almost a deadlock. Clinton won 46 pledged delegates, and 606,822 votes, while Bernie won 45 pledged delegates and 589,803 votes. Hillary won 49.73% of the votes and Bernie won 48.33% of the votes. Sanders actually won more counties, 9-5, but Clinton won the three biggest counties – Middlesex, Suffolk and Norfolk. Clinton won Democrats in the state, 60-40, and Sanders won Independents, 66-33, to make this race much tighter than when Clinton beat Obama by 15-points when she ran in 2008.
I expect Bernie to get a tight win in Massachusetts, but I do expect Elizabeth Warren to make it a race in her home state. We have also seen Pete Buttigieg do really well with Caucasian voters, so I would not be surprised if we see the former South Bend, Indiana mayor steal some votes from the favorites.
It’s busy season for the potential Presidential nominees as the hopefuls have just one week before six more primaries/caucuses take place. Next Tuesday, March 10, the remaining hopefuls will look to win Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota and Washington.